{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
  "slug": "kxca14swinner-26",
  "question": "Will a special election be held for California's 14th congressional district before the 2026 general election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-politics",
    "special-election",
    "congressional-race",
    "2027-election",
    "us-house"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the winner of the 2026 CA-14 special election for California's 14th congressional district. Kalshi lists seven named candidates as separate binary contracts. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination, using the relevant county clerk or board of elections as the authoritative source. Resolution is set for November 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H1W4TLMLV3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.92,
    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H1W4TLMLV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-AWAH",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Aisha Wahab",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Aisha Wahab: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Aisha Wahab wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 56283.3828,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "aisha wahab",
        "ca-14",
        "special election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-MHER",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Melissa Hernandez",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Melissa Hernandez wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
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            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 207.346,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-14",
        "melissa hernandez",
        "special election"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D0PPQ40S60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-MORT",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Matt Ortega",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Matt Ortega: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Matt Ortega wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
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          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
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          {
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.51,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-14",
        "matt ortega",
        "special election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2JG9F0CFT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-VAGU",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Victor Aguilar Jr.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Victor Aguilar Jr.: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Victor Aguilar Jr. wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.6600000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "ca-14",
        "special election",
        "victor aguilar jr"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PK1TYS5CD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-RSIN",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Rakhi Israni Singh",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Rakhi Israni Singh: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Rakhi Israni Singh wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
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            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the Federal Election Commission",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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        "score": 88,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.04,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2937.9056,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "ca-14",
        "rakhi israni singh",
        "special election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TZ78D8Y7Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-CELA",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Carin Elam",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Carin Elam: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carin Elam wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_total_usd": 1.07,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ca-14",
        "carin elam",
        "special election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRDYHQNR04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-WHUA",
      "question": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
      "description": "Wendy Huang",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Wendy Huang: The named candidate's victory shall be determined by the relevant county clerk or board of elections official election results by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Wendy Huang wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Attorney General of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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