{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
  "slug": "kxcagovoutperform-26jun02",
  "question": "Will a candidate in the California Governor primary outperform the polls?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-governor-2026",
    "polling-outperformance",
    "primary-election",
    "us-politics",
    "electoral-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether each named candidate beats their Race to the WH polling average in the 2026 California Governor primary. Kalshi prices each candidate separately as a binary outperformance question. All eleven markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the referenced polling average. The benchmark polling source is the Race to the WH 2026 California Governor aggregate, making that aggregator's methodology the operative resolution input.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XYL54Q9ZL3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7ZC1ZM4XK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-KBAS",
      "question": "Will Xavier Becerra outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Xavier Becerra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Xavier Becerra: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Xavier Becerra's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2705.0067,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling",
        "xavier becerra"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYL54Q9ZL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-SPRA",
      "question": "Will Steve Hilton outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Steve Hilton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Hilton: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Steve Hilton's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3842.1504,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling",
        "steve hilton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-105F9HBD50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-NRAM",
      "question": "Will Tom Steyer outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Tom Steyer",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tom Steyer: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tom Steyer's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4659.4250999999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling",
        "tom steyer"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VZ4QBN1KH5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-AMIL",
      "question": "Will Chad Bianco outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Chad Bianco",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chad Bianco: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chad Bianco's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 45.6021,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "chad bianco",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-37V0WY3XS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-RHUA",
      "question": "Will Katie Porter outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Katie Porter",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Katie Porter: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Katie Porter's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 58.3775,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "katie porter",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y87XDR0265",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-MMAH",
      "question": "Will Matt Mahan outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Matt Mahan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Matt Mahan: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Matt Mahan's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 109.89200000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "matt mahan",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1SF2X07XK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-AVIL",
      "question": "Will Antonio Villaraigosa outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Antonio Villaraigosa",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Antonio Villaraigosa: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Antonio Villaraigosa's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.41,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "antonio villaraigosa",
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WT7RD2TM88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-BWAR",
      "question": "Will Butch Ware outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Butch Ware",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Butch Ware: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Butch Ware's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 39.2547,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "butch ware",
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QY2LYQM7L6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-BYEE",
      "question": "Will Betty Yee outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Betty Yee",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Betty Yee: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Betty Yee's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15.200000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "betty yee",
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZKZ21N9Q5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-LZAC",
      "question": "Will Leo Zacky outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Leo Zacky",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Leo Zacky: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Leo Zacky's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 20.1578,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "leo zacky",
        "polling"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRZ17Q2W35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCAGOVOUTPERFORM-26JUN02-TTHU",
      "question": "Will Tony Thurmond outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
      "description": "Tony Thurmond",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tony Thurmond: The named candidate's performance versus the referenced polling average at the specified time resolves via Kalshi staff determination using official California primary election results by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-10T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tony Thurmond's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. \"Outperform\" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; \"underperform\" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.\n\nThe California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "constitutional court",
            "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official religious authority (e",
            "url": "http://leader.ir",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9.3,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-gov-2026",
        "polling",
        "tony thurmond"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}