{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
  "slug": "kxcalifornialeave-27",
  "question": "Will someone leave California before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-exodus",
    "tech-leadership",
    "state-relocation",
    "2027",
    "person-specific"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether seven named technology executives will announce departure from California before January 2027. Each contract is structured as a named-individual binary, resolved independently via Kalshi staff determination. Resolution relies on Fox News reporting as the authoritative trigger, not official filings or personal statements. Executives covered include Larry Page, Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Palmer Luckey.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QMJ3D57981",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.81,
    "implied_probability": 0.81,
    "as_of": "2026-08-19T20:01:05.415Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PPSKPFWXD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-LPAG",
      "question": "Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Larry Page",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Larry Page: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fox News reporting, whether the named individual announces departure from the state by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Larry Page announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.1670000000000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 2131.7615,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "google",
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        "tech-executive"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QMJ3D57981",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-PTHI",
      "question": "Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Peter Thiel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Peter Thiel: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fox News reporting, whether the named individual announces departure from the state by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Peter Thiel announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          {
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          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-19T20:01:05.415Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4896.3204000000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "peter thiel",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0XF23ZVW43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-CPAL",
      "question": "Will Chamath Palihapitiya announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chamath Palihapitiya: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fox News reporting, whether the named individual announces departure from the state by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chamath Palihapitiya announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T10:00:55.934Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 231.095,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "chamath palihapitiya",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BFKNKZNSX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-MAND",
      "question": "Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Marc Andreessen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Marc Andreessen: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fox News reporting, whether the named individual announces departure from the state by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Marc Andreessen announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
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          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
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          },
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-14T20:01:04.604Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 382.0728,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "marc andreessen",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17HPDH5KZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-PLUC",
      "question": "Will Palmer Luckey announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Palmer Luckey",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Palmer Luckey: Kalshi staff determination, based on Fox News reporting, whether the named individual announces departure from the state by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Palmer Luckey announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "CNBC",
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          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "name": "CNN",
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            "name": "Politico",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
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      "volume_total_usd": 71.766,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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