{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
  "slug": "kxcalifornialeave-27",
  "question": "Will someone leave California before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-exodus",
    "state-relocation",
    "tech-leadership",
    "2027",
    "person-specific"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether named California-based tech figures will publicly announce a state departure before January 2027. Each contract is person-specific; the seven names are treated as independent binary outcomes, not a basket. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract based on major news outlet reporting of a qualifying public announcement. Resolution requires an explicit announcement, not a change of address filing or informal statement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QMJ3D57981",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.55,
    "implied_probability": 0.55
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PPSKPFWXD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-LPAG",
      "question": "Will Larry Page announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Larry Page",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Larry Page: The referenced person's public announcement of departing California, as reported by major news outlets including CNBC and verified by Kalshi staff, by January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Larry Page announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1032.2127,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "google",
        "larry page",
        "tech-executive"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QMJ3D57981",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-PTHI",
      "question": "Will Peter Thiel announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Peter Thiel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Peter Thiel: The referenced person's public announcement of departing California, as reported by major news outlets including CNBC and verified by Kalshi staff, by January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Peter Thiel announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.55,
      "implied_probability": 0.55,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1847.8955,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "peter thiel",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0XF23ZVW43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-CPAL",
      "question": "Will Chamath Palihapitiya announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Chamath Palihapitiya",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chamath Palihapitiya: The referenced person's public announcement of departing California, as reported by major news outlets including CNBC and verified by Kalshi staff, by January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chamath Palihapitiya announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 231.095,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "chamath palihapitiya",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BFKNKZNSX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-MAND",
      "question": "Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Marc Andreessen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Marc Andreessen: The referenced person's public announcement of departing California, as reported by major news outlets including CNBC and verified by Kalshi staff, by January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Marc Andreessen announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 412.61740000000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "marc andreessen",
        "tech-executive",
        "venture-capitalist"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17HPDH5KZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-PLUC",
      "question": "Will Palmer Luckey announce they're leaving California?",
      "description": "Palmer Luckey",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Palmer Luckey: The referenced person's public announcement of departing California, as reported by major news outlets including CNBC and verified by Kalshi staff, by January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Palmer Luckey announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnbc.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official representatives or spokespersons for <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "verified social media accounts belonging to <person>",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.081,
      "implied_probability": 0.081,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 71.766,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california-departure",
        "entrepreneur",
        "palmer luckey",
        "tech-executive"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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