{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11",
  "question": "Will the European Central Bank change its interest rate in June?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "ecb-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "central-banking",
    "economic-forecasting",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the ECB Governing Council's June 2026 monetary policy decision. All five markets are Kalshi-native, spanning discrete outcome tiers: greater-than-25bps cut, 1-25bps cut, hold, 1-25bps hike, and greater-than-25bps hike. Together they form a full probability distribution across the ECB's policy rate decision space. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the ECB's official announcement on June 11, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GRSXZQD6N9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VSFMFSX6T8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONEU-26JUN11-C25P",
      "question": "Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?",
      "description": "Cut more than 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's announcement of its monetary policy decision at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting determines the resolution.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 64.22,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F872B29F98",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "june",
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        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVC6B77L60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONEU-26JUN11-C25",
      "question": "Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 1-25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's announcement of its monetary policy decision at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting determines the resolution.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut 1-25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3FD62CE3C2",
      "also_on": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RMN3VHGR4",
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      "question": "Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's announcement of its monetary policy decision at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting determines the resolution.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank takes the action of Maintain current rate at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "central bank",
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        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 424.34,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3FD62CE3C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GRSXZQD6N9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONEU-26JUN11-H25",
      "question": "Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 1-25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-11T12:14:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 829.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 17783.71,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-3FD62CE3C2",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONEU-26JUN11-H25P",
      "question": "Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?",
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      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's announcement of its monetary policy decision at the June 2026 Governing Council meeting determines the resolution.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GRSXZQD6N9",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}