{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM1YT234Y9",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisionindia-26aug05",
  "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate in August?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "rbi-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rate-decision",
    "indian-economics",
    "central-bank-action",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate decision on August 5, 2026. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete outcome tiers: cut more than 25bps, cut 1-25bps, hold, hike 1-25bps, and hike more than 25bps. Each tier is mutually exclusive, pricing both direction and magnitude simultaneously. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the RBI's official monetary policy announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-33HSJLRRN5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.96,
    "implied_probability": 0.96
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8771L42XT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM1YT234Y9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONINDIA-26AUG05-C25P",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India Cut more than 25bps at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?",
      "description": "Cut more than 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut more than 25bps: The Reserve Bank of India's official monetary policy decision announcement on August 5, 2026, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves whether the policy rate was maintained.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T04:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T04:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
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            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 4.84,
      "volume_total_usd": 22.06,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HW1KGW5017",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM1YT234Y9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONINDIA-26AUG05-C25",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India Cut 1-25bps at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 1-25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 1-25bps: The Reserve Bank of India's official monetary policy decision announcement on August 5, 2026, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves whether the policy rate was maintained.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T04:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T04:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of Cut 1-25bps at August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "central bank",
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            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "name": "ABC",
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            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
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          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 56.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 130.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AA47E583BC",
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      "tags": [
        "india",
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        "rbi policy rate"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-33HSJLRRN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM1YT234Y9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONINDIA-26AUG05-HOLD",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India Maintain current rate at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?",
      "description": "Maintain current rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Maintain current rate: The Reserve Bank of India's official monetary policy decision announcement on August 5, 2026, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves whether the policy rate was maintained.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T04:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T04:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of Maintain current rate at August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1K3J7VK6P4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KM1YT234Y9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONINDIA-26AUG05-H25",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India Hike 1-25bps at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 1-25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 1-25bps: The Reserve Bank of India's official monetary policy decision announcement on August 5, 2026, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination, resolves whether the policy rate was maintained.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T04:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T04:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
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