{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CK6B7WN4P3",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisionjapan-26jul30",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate in July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "boj-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "japanese-economics",
    "2026",
    "central-bank-decision"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Japan's policy rate decision at its July 2026 monetary policy meeting. Five discrete Kalshi contracts span the full outcome distribution: cuts exceeding 25bps, a 25bp cut, hold, a 25bp hike, and hikes exceeding 25bps. All five resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement. Together they form a complete probability distribution over direction and magnitude at a single meeting.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W3JCHY39J9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.97,
    "implied_probability": 0.97
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-90923RZ4P1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CK6B7WN4P3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-C25P",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
      "description": "Cut more than 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut more than 25bps: The Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement following its July 2026 monetary policy meeting, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by July 31, 2026, resolves whether the central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T02:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T02:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "central bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 46.212399999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0A914D64A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
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        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-cut"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VTTNRHFXX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CK6B7WN4P3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-C25",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: The Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement following its July 2026 monetary policy meeting, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by July 31, 2026, resolves whether the central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T02:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T02:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut 25bps at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "central bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 58.922,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0816A73CC9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rate-cut"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W3JCHY39J9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CK6B7WN4P3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-HOLD",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
      "description": "Maintain current rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Maintain current rate: The Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement following its July 2026 monetary policy meeting, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by July 31, 2026, resolves whether the central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T02:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T02:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "central bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 856.3354,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0816A73CC9",
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      "tags": [
        "bank japan policy",
        "boj",
        "hold",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5WRVSSK7K0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CK6B7WN4P3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-H25",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
      "description": "Hike 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Hike 25bps: The Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement following its July 2026 monetary policy meeting, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by July 31, 2026, resolves whether the central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T02:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T02:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "central bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "in hierarchical order",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
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      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Hike more than 25bps: The Bank of Japan's official policy rate announcement following its July 2026 monetary policy meeting, as confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by July 31, 2026, resolves whether the central bank maintained its current rate.",
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