{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBPRK2N7X2",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisionrussia-26jul24",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Russia cut its key rate at its July interest rate decision?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "bank-of-russia",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "central-bank-decisions",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bank of Russia Board of Directors' key rate decision on July 24, 2026. Seven discrete Kalshi contracts span the full outcome distribution, from cuts exceeding 50bps through hikes exceeding 50bps. All seven resolve via Kalshi staff determination against the Bank of Russia's official announcement. The exhaustive strike structure lets traders express precise directional and magnitude views across the full policy rate distribution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K892D407G3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.34,
    "implied_probability": 0.34
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PPK3DWKV15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBPRK2N7X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUL24-C50P",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at the July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?",
      "description": "Cut more than 50bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut more than 50bps: Kalshi staff determination based on the central bank's official announcement following the referenced Board of Directors' key rate meeting resolves whether the listed central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T10:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T10:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "central bank",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "BBC",
            "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E56821DBF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "central_bank",
        "monetary_policy",
        "rate_cut",
        "russia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9QYSKK8WQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBPRK2N7X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUL24-C50",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50bps at the July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 50bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 50bps: Kalshi staff determination based on the central bank's official announcement following the referenced Board of Directors' key rate meeting resolves whether the listed central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T10:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T10:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut 50bps at July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://semafor.com",
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "BBC",
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            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "CBS",
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
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            "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
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            "name": "Fox News",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://www.ft.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "central bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 58.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-198C531B8A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank russia key",
        "central_bank",
        "monetary_policy",
        "rate_cut",
        "russia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K9PGFNCR42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBPRK2N7X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUL24-C25",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia Cut 25bps at the July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?",
      "description": "Cut 25bps",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Cut 25bps: Kalshi staff determination based on the central bank's official announcement following the referenced Board of Directors' key rate meeting resolves whether the listed central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T10:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T10:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut 25bps at July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "central bank",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Semafor",
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "name": "Bloomberg News",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "Axios",
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          {
            "name": "the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-198C531B8A",
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        "monetary_policy",
        "rate_cut",
        "russia"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K892D407G3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBPRK2N7X2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUL24-HOLD",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?",
      "description": "Maintain current rate",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Maintain current rate: Kalshi staff determination based on the central bank's official announcement following the referenced Board of Directors' key rate meeting resolves whether the listed central bank maintained its current rate.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T10:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T10:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Maintain current rate at July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for \"No change\" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., \"25-50bp\" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
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            "name": "The New York Times",
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            "name": "the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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