{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
  "slug": "kxcbratehike-27",
  "question": "Which central banks will hike interest rates before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "central-banks",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027",
    "economic-forecasting"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether ten major central banks will execute at least one rate hike before January 1, 2027. Each binary contract isolates a single institution: the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, Riksbank, and Swiss National Bank. All ten resolve via Kalshi staff determination against each bank's own official policy rate announcements. Traders can construct cross-central-bank views by comparing implied hike probabilities across the full set.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T2GHHKQH72",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.65,
    "implied_probability": 0.65
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T2GHHKQH72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-FED",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate before 2027?",
      "description": "US Federal Reserve",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "US Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 573.4495000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 15959.8985,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AAEC6020FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve",
        "interest rates",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9HY1LT0SR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-ECB",
      "question": "Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate before 2027?",
      "description": "European Central Bank",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "European Central Bank: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T13:52:28Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the European Central Bank raising its deposit facility rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 809.11,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-27E23E5099",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "eu",
        "european central bank",
        "interest rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N2DH4S7D40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-BOE",
      "question": "Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Bank of England",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of England: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of England raising the Bank Rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 2883.5886,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-31016FB8A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank england",
        "boe",
        "interest rates",
        "uk"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-85FPD03C58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-BOJ",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Bank of Japan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Japan: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T03:33:39Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 594.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE41025EAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank japan",
        "boj",
        "interest rates",
        "japan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NS4SXSW7Q0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-BOC",
      "question": "Will the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Bank of Canada",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bank of Canada: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bank of Canada raising its target for the overnight rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Semafor",
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "NBC",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32,
      "volume_total_usd": 1480.7007999999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-16898360FC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bank canada",
        "boc",
        "canada",
        "interest rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-295HCCBP82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RBA",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target before 2027?",
      "description": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reserve Bank of Australia: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of Australia raising its cash rate target is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
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          },
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            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
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          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 78.8125,
      "volume_total_usd": 660.205,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-92D235D17A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest rates",
        "rba",
        "reserve bank australia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NX4S2MY398",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RBN",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-08T12:20:26Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising the Official Cash Rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5220.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AA4FA2B6AD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "interest rates",
        "new zealand",
        "rbnz",
        "reserve bank zealand"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3X5C8FYT57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-NOR",
      "question": "Will Norges Bank raise its policy rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Norges Bank",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Norges Bank: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Norges Bank raising its policy rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Washington Post",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "relevant Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.54,
      "volume_total_usd": 320.6203,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7ED3A687B2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "interest rates",
        "norges bank",
        "norway"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3MJZZSQ0J0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-RIK",
      "question": "Will the Riksbank raise its policy rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Riksbank",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Riksbank: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Riksbank raising its policy rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Semafor",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.semafor.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bloomberg",
            "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the New York Times",
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      "tags": [
        "interest rates",
        "riksbank",
        "sweden"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-58DF2NGPV1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCBRATEHIKE-27-SNB",
      "question": "Will the Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate before 2027?",
      "description": "Swiss National Bank",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Swiss National Bank: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcements and the target federal funds rate as of January 1, 2027, 3 p.m. UTC, resolve this market via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Swiss National Bank raising the SNB policy rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.\n\nThe market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.\n\nIf the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.14,
      "volume_total_usd": 110.936,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-56569F73C5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "interest rates",
        "snb",
        "swiss national bank",
        "switzerland"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NX4S2MY398",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-08T12:50:34.432686Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-85FPD03C58",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:43.380368Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
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      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9HY1LT0SR4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T14:22:36.931156Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.99,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}