{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
  "slug": "kxcdcconf-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "executive-confirmation",
    "cdc-leadership",
    "2026",
    "government-appointments"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Senate confirmation of Erica Schwartz as CDC director across four deadline tiers: June 1, July 1, August 1, and January 1, 2027. The tiered structure lets traders price both the probability of confirmation and its timing in a single nested framework. Each earlier deadline is a subset of the later ones, so prices should cascade upward across the sequence. Kalshi staff determination relies on the United States Senate's official record.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5CPVR7VL96",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KQMLCZNDH4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-JUN01",
      "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jun 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: The United States Senate's official record determines whether the named candidate received confirmation vote approval before January 1, 2027, with resolution by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA confirmation is defined as a successful Senate confirmation vote where the nominee receives the constitutionally required majority. This includes confirmation by recorded roll call vote, voice vote, or unanimous consent. Nomination without Senate action, committee approval alone, recess appointments, acting appointments, withdrawn nominations, failed votes, and procedural votes that do not result in final confirmation do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Confirmation to a different position than the one specified does not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United States Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://senate.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United States Senate",
            "url": "https://senate.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Senate",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the United States Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.07,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cdc",
        "confirmation",
        "erica schwartz cdc",
        "erica-schwartz",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZLTHSN1Z8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-JUL01",
      "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: The United States Senate's official record determines whether the named candidate received confirmation vote approval before January 1, 2027, with resolution by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA confirmation is defined as a successful Senate confirmation vote where the nominee receives the constitutionally required majority. This includes confirmation by recorded roll call vote, voice vote, or unanimous consent. Nomination without Senate action, committee approval alone, recess appointments, acting appointments, withdrawn nominations, failed votes, and procedural votes that do not result in final confirmation do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Confirmation to a different position than the one specified does not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United States Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://senate.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United States Senate",
            "url": "https://senate.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Senate",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the United States Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 49.92,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cdc",
        "confirmation",
        "erica schwartz cdc",
        "erica-schwartz",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RRT81Q1BC4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-AUG01",
      "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: The United States Senate's official record determines whether the named candidate received confirmation vote approval before January 1, 2027, with resolution by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA confirmation is defined as a successful Senate confirmation vote where the nominee receives the constitutionally required majority. This includes confirmation by recorded roll call vote, voice vote, or unanimous consent. Nomination without Senate action, committee approval alone, recess appointments, acting appointments, withdrawn nominations, failed votes, and procedural votes that do not result in final confirmation do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Confirmation to a different position than the one specified does not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United States Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://senate.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United States Senate",
            "url": "https://senate.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Senate",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the United States Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 44.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cdc",
        "confirmation",
        "erica schwartz cdc",
        "erica-schwartz",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5CPVR7VL96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-JAN01",
      "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: The United States Senate's official record determines whether the named candidate received confirmation vote approval before January 1, 2027, with resolution by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nA confirmation is defined as a successful Senate confirmation vote where the nominee receives the constitutionally required majority. This includes confirmation by recorded roll call vote, voice vote, or unanimous consent. Nomination without Senate action, committee approval alone, recess appointments, acting appointments, withdrawn nominations, failed votes, and procedural votes that do not result in final confirmation do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Confirmation to a different position than the one specified does not count.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the United States Senate",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://senate.gov",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the United States Senate",
            "url": "https://senate.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Senate",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "the United States Senate",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 962.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 7013.52,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-2027",
        "cdc",
        "confirmation",
        "erica schwartz cdc",
        "erica-schwartz",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RRT81Q1BC4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZLTHSN1Z8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "PENDING",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.08,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KQMLCZNDH4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}