{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C3PP23BX87",
  "slug": "kxcitrini-28jul01",
  "question": "Will the Citrini scenario occur?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "scenario-based",
    "citrini",
    "2028",
    "conditional-event",
    "geopolitical"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks the simultaneous occurrence of three macroeconomic stress conditions before July 2028. The conditions are: unemployment exceeding 10% per Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly data, the S&P 500 declining more than 30%, and a Zillow Home Value Index threshold breach. Resolution is determined by Kalshi staff using BLS unemployment releases, S&P 500 closing prices, and Zillow data. The conjunctive structure means all three conditions must be met concurrently for a YES outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RFTJRJ5NZ1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.18,
    "implied_probability": 0.18
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFTJRJ5NZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C3PP23BX87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCITRINI-28JUL01",
      "question": "Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?",
      "description": "Yes",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination based on Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data, S&P 500 closing prices, Zillow Home Value Index, Federal Reserve Board of Governors labor share of GDI, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U releases through June 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If at least 3 of: \nunemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS)\nS&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance\nZillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix\nlabor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%\nCPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release\n\noccur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "The Source Agencies are",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://kalshi.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "The Source Agencies are",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "monthly BLS",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "S&P 500",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Zillow Home Value Index",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "labor share of gross domestic income (GDI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "CPI-U",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31.482,
      "volume_total_usd": 4655984.2488,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "citrini scenario",
        "deflation",
        "housing",
        "labor share",
        "macro",
        "stock market",
        "unemployment",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C3PP23BX87",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}