{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
  "slug": "kxclactonbymov-clactonbyelection26sep01",
  "question": "Will the Clacton by-election margin of victory be more than 10,000 votes?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "electoral-margins",
    "clacton-constituency",
    "2027",
    "by-election"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Reform UK's margin of victory in the 2026 Clacton by-election. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, with 16 binary contracts spanning thresholds from 5% to 80%. Each contract resolves YES if the official margin exceeds its respective threshold, creating an implied cumulative distribution of margin outcomes. Kalshi staff determination applies, referencing the official electoral result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8QSNX54P57",
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    "implied_probability": 0.92
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WM6M1B2VP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P52",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥5%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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          }
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7425.978999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QSNX54P57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P55",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥10%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 109.3788,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4FD7579JY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P57",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥15%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 978.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 3342.8756,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QC3VTZFJ84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P60",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥20%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥20%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3850.1148000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PX0LC6V684",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P62",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥25%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 25% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1730.4534,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D42VCX9NR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P65",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 30%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥30%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥30%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 30% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 3197.8151999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3ZMC1W9MT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P67",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 35%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥35%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥35%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 35% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.66,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-99QR17MLW5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P70",
      "question": "Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 40%?",
      "description": "Reform UK, ≥40%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Reform UK, ≥40%: The named candidate's margin of victory in the referenced election resolves according to official results certified by the UK Electoral Commission, with Kalshi staff determination by July 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-08T14:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 80% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses. If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
            "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 72.75,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "margin",
        "reform uk",
        "reform uk clacton"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V85QFJRJ87",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}