{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
  "slug": "kxclaude-myth",
  "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "anthropic",
    "ai-models",
    "product-release",
    "mythos",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the release timing of Anthropic's Mythos product across eight discrete deadline thresholds. Kalshi structures this as a staircase of binary strikes, from June 15, 2026 through January 1, 2027. Each contract resolves independently via Kalshi staff determination against official Anthropic communications on anthropic.com. Implied probability differences between adjacent strikes reveal the market's probability mass for each monthly release window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C0GLS7FVD5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LRS1V2RV81",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26JUN15",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jun 15, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 15, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 15, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-22T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Jun 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4046.6,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-68959DA498",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q01L26HMB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3974.62,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCC27F0D40",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KR3G5XBP23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26AUG01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:15:49Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2429.39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FCF85F24DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-08H5DB2YC2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8676.4755,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-604942EC95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4YGNJTL5G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.4179999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 4283.3391,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D45EF2AAD7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3YRPD77361",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 7.1425,
      "volume_total_usd": 10262.598,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-888A84D5AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YTFMZ2BB86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Dec 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Dec 1, 2026: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.397600000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 13407.826600000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-80F89517A9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C0GLS7FVD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: Anthropic's official communications and product announcements on anthropic.com resolve whether the named product releases before January 1, 2027, determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Anthropic",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Anthropic",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T21:00:46.150Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 98.15399999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 21724.235999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D8408B3A1E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai-model",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic mythos release",
        "mythos",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KR3G5XBP23",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q01L26HMB3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:49:03.182255Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LRS1V2RV81",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T20:55:43.380466Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}