{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "slug": "kxclosestsenate-27jan03", "question": "Will the closest Senate race in 2026 occur in a state other than Nevada?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "us-senate-2026", "election-margins", "competitive-races", "state-specific-outcomes", "electoral-outcomes" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "This event tracks which state will produce the tightest margin of victory across all 2026 U.S. Senate elections. Kalshi structures the question as 14 discrete state-level binary markets, each asking whether a specific state claims the smallest national margin. The canonical question aggregates these into a single directional ask: does the closest race occur outside Nevada. Kalshi staff determination relies on CBS News reported results, with resolution by January 3, 2027.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-24VBY8GGK4", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 0.17, "implied_probability": 0.17 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-SQRR4G1304", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MN", "question": "Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Minnesota", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Minnesota: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.03, "implied_probability": 0.03, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 253.85879999999997, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "margin", "minnesota", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Z4TC4J7X5", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NH", "question": "Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "New Hampshire", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "New Hampshire: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.044, "implied_probability": 0.044, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 394.71915999999993, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "hampshire", "margin", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9JDHKN5G9", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-GA", "question": "Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Georgia", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Georgia: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.054, "implied_probability": 0.054, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1265.11524, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "georgia", "margin", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJNRFT1Y94", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-MI", "question": "Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Michigan", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Michigan: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.1, "implied_probability": 0.1, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1162.968, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "margin", "michigan", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YXTVS78VY2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NC", "question": "Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "North Carolina", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "North Carolina: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.057, "implied_probability": 0.057, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 460.39812, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "margin", "north carolina", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-5NQVRP0FQ2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-ME", "question": "Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Maine", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Maine: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.085, "implied_probability": 0.085, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1392.0110000000002, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "maine", "margin", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-9CCMLYS450", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA", "question": "Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Iowa", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iowa: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.13, "implied_probability": 0.13, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1911.6123, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "iowa", "margin", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-24VBY8GGK4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX", "question": "Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Texas", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Texas: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.17, "implied_probability": 0.17, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 4123.0389, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "margin", "senate", "texas" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-3F1GC9FDN6", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH", "question": "Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Ohio", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Ohio: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "CBS News", "source_status": "platform_named", "source_citation": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "sources": [ { "name": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Fox News", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official state or local election division websites", "url": "https://www.vote.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Source Agencies are", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "ABC News", "url": "https://abcnews.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Ballotpedia", "url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "CNN", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The Wall Street Journal", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions", "url": "https://www.usa.gov/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Politico", "url": "https://www.politico.com", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "NBC News", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "the Associated Press", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "Bloomberg News", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news", "provenance": "platform_api" }, { "name": "FiveThirtyEight", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": "single_authority", "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "named", "source_commitment_subtype": "named", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "A", "score": 91, "caps": [], "applied_factors": 7 }, "last_price": 0.11, "implied_probability": 0.11, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 1504.316, "settlement_style": "terminal", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "election", "margin", "ohio", "senate" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-R0GPPSCRW4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK", "question": "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?", "description": "Alaska", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Alaska: Kalshi staff determination based on CBS News reporting of the 2026 United States Senate election results, resolved by January 3, 2027.", "close_at": "2027-01-03T04:59:00Z", "resolve_at": "2027-01-03T15:00:00Z", "status": "open", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nMargin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. 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For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.\n\nIf official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. 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