{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
  "slug": "kxcmg-26julrest",
  "question": "Chipotle total restaurants, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4150,
      4160
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4100,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4120,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4130,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4140,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4150,
        "prob": 61
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4160,
        "prob": 29
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4170,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4180,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4200,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "chipotle",
    "restaurant-count",
    "q2-2026",
    "expansion-metrics",
    "financial-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Chipotle Mexican Grill's total restaurant count as reported in Q2 2026 earnings. Kalshi lists nine binary strike thresholds, ranging from 4,100 to 4,200 locations, each resolved independently. Traders can read the implied count distribution by comparing probabilities across adjacent strikes. Kalshi staff determination is based on Chipotle's official Q2 2026 earnings disclosure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HHLJP1LDH1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.38,
    "implied_probability": 0.38
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3TCBRQSMM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4100",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4100 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4100",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4100: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4100 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1976.3562,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4100,
      "question_id": "CMX-561CE175A1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6QL3Q7C9V4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4120",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4120 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4120",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4120: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4120 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1145.574,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4120,
      "question_id": "CMX-3EF7D505E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SFMTRPMG53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4130",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4130 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4130",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4130: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4130 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 74.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4130,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D9787492A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LR276PMTF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4140",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4140 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4140",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4140: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4140 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4607.0716,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4140,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C3C21B12D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0ZNLM5D8Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4150",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4150 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4150",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4150: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4150 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.67,
      "implied_probability": 0.67,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 504.6976,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4150,
      "question_id": "CMX-1CEA75629A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HHLJP1LDH1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4160",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4160",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4160: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.5302,
      "volume_total_usd": 2326.3942,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4160,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FB4AED2C4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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          ],
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLVBDBBCD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4170",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4170 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4170",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4170: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4170 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.5836,
      "volume_total_usd": 380.7448,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 4170,
      "question_id": "CMX-FA2CFB8FE2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z8G3XRVTN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4180",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4180 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4180",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4180: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4180 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 416.4556,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4180,
      "question_id": "CMX-58848343D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "chipotle total restaurant"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0D7FG0K6D1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4F5PN76W2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCMG-26JULREST-4200",
      "question": "Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4200 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above 4200",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4200: Kalshi staff determination based on the named company's reported total restaurant count in Q2 2026 earnings, due by August 21, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-21T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above 4200 total restaurant count in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, this market will resolve based on Chipotle's reported total company-owned restaurants.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
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