{ "_notice": { "type": "free_key_offer", "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.", "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/", "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change." }, "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "slug": "kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26", "question": "Will the Colombian presidential runoff winner's margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points?", "category": "politics", "event_type": "BINARY", "ladder_distribution": null, "tags": [ "politics", "colombia-politics", "presidential-election", "electoral-margin", "2027-election", "runoff-election" ], "catalyst_types": [], "catalyst_dates": [], "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff, closing June 21, 2027. Kalshi prices discrete margin tiers for each candidate separately: 0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9%, 9-12%, 12-15%, and 15% or above. The canonical question collapses both candidate sets into a single binary threshold at 5 percentage points. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination, sourced from Colombia's official election authority.", "venues_covered": [ "kalshi" ], "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CTXN8WXKV0", "current_primary_mark": { "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0 }, "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00", "markets": [ { "market_id": "CM-MKT-VT2D5F6X30", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 0-3%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 1, "implied_probability": 1, "volume_24h_usd": 2, "volume_total_usd": 219.9, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWC212RF31", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 28.84, "volume_total_usd": 453.92, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-48PDST7F60", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 6-9%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 268.31, "volume_total_usd": 2125.08, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-P40RRMLPF2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P10", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 80.85, "volume_total_usd": 1634.62, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-84DN9CXSV2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P13", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 12-15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, 12-15%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 186.27, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-5R427WJGG2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P57", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be above 15%?", "description": "Abelardo de la Espriella, ≥15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Abelardo de la Espriella, ≥15%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.\n\nIf Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 721.99, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "abelardo de la", "colombia", "de la espriella", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-XJL4XJR7S4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P1", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, 0-3%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, 0-3%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 345.7, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "cepeda", "colombia", "iv cepeda margin", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-CTXN8WXKV0", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P4", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, 3-6%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, 3-6%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 40.9, "volume_total_usd": 4987.25, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "cepeda", "colombia", "iv cepeda margin", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-TNZ0C4R182", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P7", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, 6-9%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, 6-9%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 172.45, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "cepeda", "colombia", "iv cepeda margin", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXTBC6DF16", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P10", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, 9-12%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, 9-12%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 9.35, "volume_total_usd": 39.09, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "cepeda", "colombia", "iv cepeda margin", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-JKZPC6NCQ4", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P13", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, 12-15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, 12-15%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 12% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 76.17, "settlement_style": "touch", "direction": null, "threshold": null, "question_id": null, "also_on": null, "tags": [ "2026", "cepeda", "colombia", "iv cepeda margin", "presidential", "runoff" ], "eligibility_screens": [ { "regime": "ciro-26-0076", "screen_version": "v1", "status": "not_eligible", "reasons": [ "category_not_permitted" ], "bucket": null, "screened_at": "2026-06-12" } ] }, { "market_id": "CM-MKT-PH21651SW2", "event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5", "platform": "kalshi", "platform_market_id": "KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P57", "question": "Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be above 15%?", "description": "Iván Cepeda, ≥15%", "contract_type": "binary", "settlement_currency": "USD", "underlying_reference": "Iván Cepeda, ≥15%: Colombia's official election authority certifies the named candidate's margin of victory in the 2026 presidential runoff by June 21, 2027.", "close_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T17:12:54Z", "status": "resolved", "resolution": { "rules_raw": "If the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.\n\nFor percentage points: the vote percentage received by Iván Cepeda minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor raw votes: the total votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Iván Cepeda if Iván Cepeda wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Iván Cepeda loses.\nFor electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda wins, or the electoral votes received by Iván Cepeda minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Iván Cepeda does not.\n\nEach margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iván Cepeda runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Iván Cepeda will be summed.\n\nIf Iván Cepeda wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Iván Cepeda loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Iván Cepeda ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Iván Cepeda is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).", "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff", "proposer": "platform_staff", "source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "source_status": "no_committed_source", "source_citation": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "sources": [ { "name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ", "url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote", "provenance": "platform_api" } ], "source_of_record": null, "source_mechanism": null, "source_type": null, "source_quality": "authoritative", "source_commitment": "uncommitted", "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder", "source_hedge_text": null }, "rcg": { "grade": "C", "score": 78, "caps": [ "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder" ], "applied_factors": 6 }, "last_price": 0, "implied_probability": 0, "volume_24h_usd": 0, "volume_total_usd": 41.26, 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