{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
  "slug": "kxcompanyactionmerger-27",
  "question": "Will Tesla and SpaceX merge?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "tesla-spacex-merger",
    "elon-musk-companies",
    "corporate-acquisition",
    "space-industry",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Tesla or SpaceX will announce a definitive, binding merger or acquisition agreement. Kalshi structures the event as a series of monthly binary contracts, each asking whether the deal is announced before a specific calendar deadline. Together, the contracts form an implied timing curve for the transaction through May 2027. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution for all tranches.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0G80J1YG4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.51,
    "implied_probability": 0.51
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JY2TVGVK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26MAY01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "company",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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        "source_of_record": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 30.19,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8AD3D08434",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "may-2026",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9R3SGRB231",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUN01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jun 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jun 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jun 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox Business",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNBC",
            "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Financial Times",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "company",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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            "name": "Politico",
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          {
            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 89.08,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-36E7C2E2E9",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4L32PMVG85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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      "tags": [
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        "jul-2026",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "bucket": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F5TW6CKXH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "MarketWatch",
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            "name": "Axios",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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        "merger",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "NBC",
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
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          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RXY0FVGZ70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
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        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "MarketWatch",
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            "name": "Axios",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RRJ7YPB0J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 1, 2026",
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      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Dec 1, 2026?",
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            "name": "Reuters",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027?",
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        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027?",
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        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "feb-2027",
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        "tesla",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Before Mar 1, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-03-08T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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            "name": "MSNBC",
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            "name": "Financial Times",
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          },
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            "name": "The Information",
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            "name": "NBC",
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            "name": "company",
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          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          },
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            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "Politico",
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          {
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            "name": "Bloomberg News",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
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            "name": "ABC",
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            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "NBC",
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          {
            "name": "MarketWatch",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q0G80J1YG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?",
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      "close_at": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
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            "name": "ABC",
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          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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            "name": "MarketWatch",
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
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            "name": "CNN",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CBS",
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP8MJ2HD36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26APR01",
      "question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Apr 1, 2026",
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      "underlying_reference": "SEC EDGAR database filings by Tesla Inc. and SpaceX (or their parent entities) announce a definitive, binding agreement for acquisition, merger, or consolidation before May 1, 2027.",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.\n\nThis market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.\n\nA statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "http://www.sec.gov/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 71,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 23.9,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3DB8CC5A5A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "corporate",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP8MJ2HD36",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9R3SGRB231",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-08T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JY2TVGVK0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}