{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "question": "CPI month-over-month, August 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.3,
      0.4
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -0.1,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 86
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 31
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation-index",
    "us-economic-data",
    "2026",
    "monthly-indicator",
    "price-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the month-over-month CPI print for August 2026, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete strike thresholds, from -0.1% to 0.5%, each a binary question on whether the print exceeds that level. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the August MoM CPI outcome. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination upon BLS publication, expected around September 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-707HSDDQS3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TR96DR8P41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1347.4032000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-15E1D66079",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y66KXTS9L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.41,
      "implied_probability": 0.41,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 762.7558,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-5DF86AD28F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZRB4K9GQ76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.86,
      "volume_total_usd": 884.0286,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-444A056803",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7QH1NL21H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.330000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 365.7276,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-FC470C778A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4NBC5L5Y91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.954499999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-A14AD2AC17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-707HSDDQS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 268.686,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-18B9902836",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-19XPVS73L7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.5",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 42.8916,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-9A951A0D1D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}