{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "question": "Will the Consumer Price Index increase in August?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "cpi",
    "inflation",
    "economics",
    "us-economy",
    "august-2026",
    "macroeconomic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI print for August 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing the probability that month-over-month CPI exceeds each discrete threshold from -0.4% to 1.0%. Reading across strikes constructs an implied distribution of the August print. Kalshi staff determination applies; resolution references the BLS August 2026 CPI release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4NBC5L5Y91",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.5,
    "implied_probability": 0.5,
    "as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7S00K26YN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 302.183,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-2610B62246",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TLV29V8DY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 900.4149,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A37386D93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2NFGJ9C500",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3531.8399999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-5528510B6C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TR96DR8P41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T06:00:59.261Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5634.2286,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-15E1D66079",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y66KXTS9L2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-28T17:01:33.574Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10685.966199999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-5DF86AD28F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZRB4K9GQ76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T00:01:25.253Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 755.2995,
      "volume_total_usd": 15699.9252,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-444A056803",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7QH1NL21H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T01:01:11.017Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 96.696,
      "volume_total_usd": 29984.166499999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-FC470C778A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "august-2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4NBC5L5Y91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data for August 2026, published monthly, determines whether the indexed measure rose above the specified threshold, resolving by December 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
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      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-11T12:25:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.7% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (September 11, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
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