{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "question": "Will CPI be released for July by the settlement date?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi",
    "inflation",
    "us-economics",
    "monthly-data",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics month-over-month CPI change for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of binary strike thresholds, from -0.1% through 0.5%, each asking whether the print exceeds that level. Together the strikes imply a full implied distribution of the July CPI outcome. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination using the BLS official release, expected August 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BT2C5X9RK0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KY5YL47G36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "volume_24h_usd": 317.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 6519.5793,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-A885BE92BB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1JKCGX7DN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.58,
      "implied_probability": 0.58,
      "volume_24h_usd": 516.722,
      "volume_total_usd": 10706.2026,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8EE60BAF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7BCG63CGK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 399.704,
      "volume_total_usd": 12153.568,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-6AA547E333",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW7V3T9839",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 66.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 6895.0749000000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-B23A70FE32",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-12M2ZZLK21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41,
      "volume_total_usd": 3997.3025,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-73B444FCD9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BT2C5X9RK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.240000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 561.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D3A34B9EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-90T1F4GQD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.5",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly change for July 2026 resolves the outcome, determined by Kalshi staff upon publication by November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 720.0016,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-808F63E0BD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "july-2026",
        "us",
        "us cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}