{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "question": "CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0,
      0.1
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -0.4,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.3,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.2,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.1,
        "prob": 91
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 65
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi-inflation",
    "us-macroeconomic",
    "july-2026",
    "monthly-economic-indicator",
    "price-index"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics month-over-month CPI print for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing the probability that CPI exceeds each discrete threshold from -0.4% to 0.5%. Taken together, the strikes imply a cumulative distribution over the realized print. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution using the BLS official release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7BCG63CGK3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GHS8CVQYB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 8396.19,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-09B7A63C80",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us cpi",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LT5YKCJNL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8674.01,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-E32166B0A4",
      "also_on": null,
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        "inflation",
        "us cpi",
        "usa"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SDZZFVXY02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 471.42,
      "volume_total_usd": 20404.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-C73F1263D4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us cpi",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [],
          "permitted_category": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KY5YL47G36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3077.63,
      "volume_total_usd": 28470.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-A885BE92BB",
      "also_on": null,
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        "usa"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1JKCGX7DN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11724.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 64483.97,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8EE60BAF4",
      "also_on": null,
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        "inflation",
        "us cpi",
        "usa"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7BCG63CGK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4144.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 39043.18,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-6AA547E333",
      "also_on": null,
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        "us cpi",
        "usa"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW7V3T9839",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 4049.31,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-B23A70FE32",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us cpi",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-12M2ZZLK21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the named month resolves by Kalshi staff determination using official CPI data released by BLS, with final resolution on November 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
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      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2.13,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}