{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26jun",
  "question": "CPI month-over-month, June 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      -0.1,
      0
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -0.3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.2,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.1,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 36
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi",
    "inflation",
    "economic-data",
    "us-macro",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI change for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as nine discrete strike thresholds, spanning -0.3% to +0.5%, each pricing the probability that the print exceeds that level. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the month-over-month change. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination against the official BLS release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FJWRZT47Y4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CHRNCGCK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.3%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 355.99699999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 61752.1366,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-EC35FAD331",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3TRSFJ498",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.2%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 941.8827000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 38697.4467,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-D5DE623E6B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-04SQ17B8J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 304.2954,
      "volume_total_usd": 30199.363199999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-AA4CF71601",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FJWRZT47Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 33.7893,
      "volume_total_usd": 3943.8288,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-8EA0E75F04",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6J44GWLBT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 19.8537,
      "volume_total_usd": 4360.8864,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-555395BE64",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TQZ907RH23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 487.5633,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-160B454F7E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Z5XKL50P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2,
      "volume_total_usd": 391.501,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-8E74B48E48",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1BG7QBDQL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 195.7707,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-C160A1404F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1VX45JH4M8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T0.5",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: The Consumer Price Index monthly change for June 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market on October 13, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 166.1667,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-0E25D6C42D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "consumer index",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "june-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}