{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26may",
  "question": "CPI month-over-month change, May 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.4,
      0.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -0.3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": -0.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.6,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.7,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.8,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.9,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi",
    "inflation",
    "us-economy",
    "may-2026",
    "economic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    }
  ],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI change for May 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of 14 discrete strike thresholds, ranging from -0.3% to 1.0% month-over-month. Implied probabilities across strikes reconstruct a full distribution of the print. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract against the official BLS release, scheduled around June 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QLZDKFBNV8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HV8FNH1NM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1836.29,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-51F39C92FE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6DH9FSQBG5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2729.43,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E6544B34D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBDC6GSCH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2538.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-C40CF001BA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXT74LG141",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3503.33,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E35EEF782",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2F0QD5P1L4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8942.73,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-E883115C02",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SWT8P5JH01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7430.05,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-DFD096CD2C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BP6XNMXS17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 105.09,
      "volume_total_usd": 17353.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-A554BB8675",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4BQ4X23XR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4239.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 28166.45,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-46FCEE8D39",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026",
        "us cpi monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLZDKFBNV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HWQGSV711",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly change for May 2026.",
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