{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "question": "CPI month-over-month, November 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.2,
      0.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": -0.1,
        "prob": 84
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 78
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 55
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 41
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 18
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "cpi",
    "november-2026",
    "us-economics",
    "economic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the month-over-month U.S. CPI change for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Kalshi structures the event as seven discrete strike thresholds, from -0.1% to 0.5%, each resolved by Kalshi staff determination. The spread between adjacent strikes implies a market-derived probability distribution over the print. Resolution is expected by March 2027, after the BLS release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L3SCF1KZX5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SW0MC09471",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3308.409,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-43D57DB225",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "november-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TQ3GR09Z84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 396.9192,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-B10A7D6054",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "november-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CN4XL7RGG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2134.08,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0837E2962",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "november-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QJGK7RMMH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "last_price": 0.08,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 132.0048,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E3ACAB352",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "november-2026"
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          "reasons": [],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3SCF1KZX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2119.59,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-E5729DC70D",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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      "description": "Above 0.5%",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: The U.S. Consumer Price Index for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resolves this market by March 11, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "sources": [
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}