{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "question": "Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "cpi",
    "us-economic-data",
    "september-2026",
    "monthly-economics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly CPI change for September 2026. Kalshi structures the event as seven sequential strike thresholds, from -0.1% to 0.5%, each pricing the probability that the print exceeds that level. The implied distribution of the September reading can be derived by differencing adjacent contract prices. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, referencing the BLS release expected around mid-October 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MZHNC0ZD96",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.76,
    "implied_probability": 0.76
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QHJG1DRHQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above -0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above -0.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1604.7720000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": -0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDF5DCB881",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "september-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MZHNC0ZD96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2073.204,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-98664CB3D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "september-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1DNYZX7LZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1535.1732,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-6364C3342D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "september-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3RSWRHTSC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 696.9694000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-07A6FB1060",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "september-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JTPTKXMP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1149.9642000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-2D376804C5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "inflation",
        "september-2026"
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K17585JBC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 730.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-B06A8D7139",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index monthly change figure for September 2026, published by January 13, 2027, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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}