{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
  "slug": "kxcpicore-26jul",
  "question": "Core CPI month-over-month, July 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      0.2,
      0.3
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 0,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.1,
        "prob": 89
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.3,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.4,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.5,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.6,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.7,
        "prob": 4
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.8,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 0.9,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi-core",
    "inflation-measurement",
    "us-economics",
    "monthly-indicator",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly core CPI print for July 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of eleven binary strike thresholds, from above 0.0% to above 1.0%. The spread of implied probabilities across strikes reconstructs a full market-implied distribution of the month-over-month core print. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against the BLS release, expected by August 19, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-R3V5D07V57",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1DZWTG91S3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.0",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 192.51000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-15FB417D84",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6X4CBR6Q33",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.1",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3842.3546,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A00FBB652",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFV1Y4K5G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.2",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.20800000000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 360.98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-7824963249",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R3V5D07V57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.3",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 412.60720000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-20D6348221",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8KN58H7Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.4",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14.359200000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6769CA24F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7YVG1KJP01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.5",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 89.60000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C921DDFC7D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V9D21SR9X4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.6",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.6%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Source Agency",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-DED09C4CAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "cpi",
        "cpi core",
        "inflation",
        "monthly"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKPJ608785",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.7",
      "question": "Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in July?",
      "description": "Above 0.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 0.7%: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the monthly core CPI percent change for July 2026 by August 19, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination resolving the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
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