{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
  "slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26jul",
  "question": "Will core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI year-over-year) be below 3%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-inflation",
    "cpi-yoy",
    "us-economics",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI print for the year ending July 2026. All 15 contracts are Kalshi strike-threshold markets, each pricing whether the year-over-year rate exceeds a discrete level from 2.1% to 3.5%. Together they imply a market-derived probability distribution over the realized inflation rate. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the BLS release expected by August 19, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L3T9GJTK41",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L3T9GJTK41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.1%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8053.6302,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA407ED795",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GNDMBNCHR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.2%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4874.431,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-EA6DDDEA0F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PSL7MS2MH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.3%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.8,
      "implied_probability": 0.8,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2451.2000000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-F89C24E62E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8F8DYWXX58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.4%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1191.9441,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-4E4E4AC8C6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QRB2K7BLZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.5%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.61,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D1570E7EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5S8X7TVKR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.6%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 579.2754000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-B11D37A505",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C7Z1VFDNB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.7%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7.9799999999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-66E938B577",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0NJG4F062",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTJTYGW53",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.8%: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index for the year ending July 2026 by August 19, 2026, resolving whether the annual rate exceeded 2.1%.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-19T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 372.74559999999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FC776174D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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}