{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
  "slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26jun",
  "question": "Will the core Consumer Price Index year-over-year change in June 2026 be below 3%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-inflation",
    "cpi-metric",
    "us-economic-data",
    "2026",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI year-over-year rate for June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing the probability that the print exceeds each threshold from 2.1% to 3.5% in 10-basis-point increments. The spread between adjacent strikes implies a market-derived probability distribution over the rate level. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, using the BLS release expected around July 21, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K68JNTS1T2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYNS8P4XH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 227.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6AEF56422",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CHFGMS6KN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 152.46,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-E87D3B8B1A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQTB1P55N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 560.3103,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FA195B57D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K68JNTS1T2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2135.43,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-6C168CB547",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4ZP6736WK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 445.5,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D31F8AF7C7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BWR9XBZ412",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.6%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6367.1058,
      "volume_total_usd": 45393.5592,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-6C1BDAA46C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LT16LKLNK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.7%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 375.0023,
      "volume_total_usd": 6544.8322,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-157612BB18",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9LZ4TC9668",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.8%: Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI inflation rate for the year ending June 2026 resolves the market on July 21, 2026, per Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.30300000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 11029.3096,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-07C6E63956",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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    {
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