{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
  "slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26may",
  "question": "Core CPI year-over-year, May 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      2.8,
      2.9
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.6,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.7,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.8,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.9,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.1,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-cpi",
    "inflation",
    "us-economics",
    "may-2026",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    }
  ],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics 12-month core CPI print for May 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike-threshold ladder, pricing the probability that core inflation exceeds each level from 2.1% to 3.5%. The implied distribution can be read from the spread between consecutive strikes. Kalshi staff determination resolves each contract after the BLS release on June 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TH8094X661",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17XJ933Q76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-3C63ED3CD1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YH6C2D5HR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 824.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-FCA7039F2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S28W0PZFG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 200.97,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-00E8FBAE43",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HSL67VFLR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1574.38,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-594AAFE8C9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M4KN96JM00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 649.44,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-66EDA5C00D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJH20TLQG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3881.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D796BDB9E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HX60G8XBQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1844.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 7542.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-81D50518B6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B10GMMDC95",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the core Consumer Price Index inflation rate for the 12-month period ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:25:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 150.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 8426.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-316D063305",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core",
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "may-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TH8094X661",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S299B265X5",
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