{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
  "slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
  "question": "Will core inflation in November 2026 be measured by Core CPI year-over-year change?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "core-inflation",
    "us-cpi",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2026",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics' core CPI year-over-year print for November 2026. Kalshi structures the event as 16 discrete binary strike thresholds, from 2.0% to 3.5% in 10-basis-point increments. The implied probability distribution across strikes lets traders read market consensus on the rate level directly. Kalshi staff determination governs resolution, using the BLS release expected around December 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BMJPFN4Q72",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.97,
    "implied_probability": 0.97
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BMJPFN4Q72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.0",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.0% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5818.0599999999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D58F59B0D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XF42M579Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.1%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 150.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FA4A1310E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z7N9PS6BJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.2%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2237.3596,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-7B6EE4A514",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QPYDXPWJ28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.3",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.3%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3077.8003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-34C32DD812",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F5ZTTZRJC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.4%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3988.6,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-D4E3EBC4A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5W4LJ5LK44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2029.5898000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5E4287741",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J4MDK8QTG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.6%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.6,
      "implied_probability": 0.6,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 93.018,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-01FE3B788E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-96PY1KJHQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.7%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 57.9726,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-E095B78E77",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-macro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-462Q4W9XJ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in November 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.8%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending November 2026, released by December 17, 2026, determines whether the annual rate exceeded 2.0 percent.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-10T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
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