{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "question": "Will inflation in June 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "cpi",
    "us-economy",
    "2026",
    "economic-indicator"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI year-over-year print for the 12-month period ending June 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a ladder of discrete strike thresholds from 2.5% to above 4.4%, each resolved independently via Kalshi staff determination. The ladder collectively implies a market-derived probability distribution over the June 2026 CPI outcome. The authoritative data source is the BLS Consumer Price Index release, expected around mid-July 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PLWPYV39H9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.26,
    "implied_probability": 0.26
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LV809VPHB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9115.6725,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-45B981E8D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8V3GXXDPV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.6%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2804.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-DF2DBCD500",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-28SNZVBPF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.7%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99,
      "volume_total_usd": 1065.8736000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4E4F331D9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6P2X8T2BD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.8%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99,
      "volume_total_usd": 8139.2949,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-C694B91723",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V51BQBKR26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T2.9",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.9%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.9% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4830.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 5404.41,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C94FF60BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CPDSTMNND4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.0",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.0%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 138.8673,
      "volume_total_usd": 1477.7433,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-57D425B44F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LRW2XWGP66",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 951.6474,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-FAB5060B9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
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          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZZSZGQRXM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in June 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for the 12-month period ending June 2026, announced by BLS on or before October 13, 2026, determines whether inflation exceeded the threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2055.6261,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-B5A952C6A7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us cpi yoy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X05K9GKTM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
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