{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
  "slug": "kxcpiyoy-26may",
  "question": "CPI year-over-year, May 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4.1,
      4.2
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.6,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.7,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.8,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.6,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.2,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.3,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.4,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.6,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.7,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.8,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.9,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "cpi",
    "economic-indicators",
    "us-economy",
    "may-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    }
  ],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for the 12 months ending May 2026. Kalshi structures the event as a strike ladder, pricing the probability that year-over-year CPI exceeds each threshold from 2.4% to 4.3% and beyond. The cumulative structure allows readers to infer an implied probability distribution across the full rate range. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination upon the official BLS publication, scheduled around June 10, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QMDP40S8V6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3XGMK6WWR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.4",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1341.19,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-713DA1DDF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DJQNVY1BN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.5",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 460.35,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-13FC8748D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GKL6S9H474",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.6",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1329.57,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-8B5A08C917",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TY6K73M444",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.7",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1495.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-EBAE01A8D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V4M2F1RFQ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.8",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.8%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2373.74,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-3560AEDF23",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P48TR4B229",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T2.9",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.9%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.9% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1111.77,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-5A60E39F14",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5TXDGGBX84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.0",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1406.13,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F240EE2EB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7VRL1HVC41",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.1",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in May 2026?",
      "description": "Above 3.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending May 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T12:29:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIn the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the\ngovernment shutdown",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3348.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D0F285081",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "inflation may cpi"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKZXWSFXF0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5F0G9L6HV6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.2",
      "question": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in May 2026?",
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