{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HSWDJ1SKJ2",
  "slug": "kxcreditrating-26dec31",
  "question": "Will the US credit rating be downgraded in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-credit-rating",
    "fiscal-policy",
    "2027-resolution",
    "macroeconomic-risk",
    "ratings-agencies"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any major credit rating agency will lower the U.S. sovereign credit rating before end of 2026. Kalshi prices a binary yes/no outcome, resolved by Kalshi staff determination. The authoritative source is Fitch Ratings, which publishes U.S. sovereign rating actions on its official sovereigns page. Resolution follows the December 31, 2026 deadline per the resolve_at timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TQ0GZCQ295",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.095
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TQ0GZCQ295",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HSWDJ1SKJ2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31",
      "question": "Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Rating reduced",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Fitch Ratings publishes the U.S. sovereign credit rating on its official sovereigns page.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fitch",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fitchratings.com/sovereigns",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fitch",
            "url": "https://www.fitchratings.com/sovereigns",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Moody's",
            "url": "https://www.moodys.com/Pages/Sovereign-Default-Research.aspx",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Standard & Poor's",
            "url": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.095,
      "implied_probability": 0.095,
      "volume_24h_usd": 223.89695,
      "volume_total_usd": 6644.393099999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "credit",
        "downgrade",
        "rating",
        "sovereign",
        "us",
        "us sovereign credit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HSWDJ1SKJ2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}