{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
  "slug": "kxcvna-26julsales",
  "question": "Carvana Co. report retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      195000,
      200000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 190000,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 195000,
        "prob": 82
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200000,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 205000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 210000,
        "prob": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "carvana",
    "retail-vehicles",
    "q2-2026",
    "unit-sales",
    "automotive-sales"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Carvana's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete strike thresholds spanning 190,000 to 210,000 units, each resolving as a binary. The spread of live strikes functions as an implied distribution over the likely reported figure. Kalshi staff determination references figures published on Fiscal.ai against Carvana's official Q2 2026 earnings release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0M58NQ7810",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.34,
    "implied_probability": 0.34
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JC6SZYMH44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P190000",
      "question": "Will Carvana Co. report above 190000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 190000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 190000: The listed company's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by August 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carvana Co. reports above 190000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6809.058,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 190000,
      "question_id": "CMX-95F19AFF3E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "carvana",
        "carvana retail vehicle",
        "q2-2026",
        "retail",
        "vehicles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1VF7RVHYW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P195000",
      "question": "Will Carvana Co. report above 195000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 195000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 195000: The listed company's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by August 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carvana Co. reports above 195000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.8708,
      "volume_total_usd": 2320.7722,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 195000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D2BB6FB5A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "carvana",
        "carvana retail vehicle",
        "q2-2026",
        "retail",
        "vehicles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0M58NQ7810",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P200000",
      "question": "Will Carvana Co. report above 200000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 200000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 200000: The listed company's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by August 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carvana Co. reports above 200000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.34,
      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.0072,
      "volume_total_usd": 2264.6278,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-034BF44DC2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "carvana",
        "carvana retail vehicle",
        "q2-2026",
        "retail",
        "vehicles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VLWJTDXBZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P205000",
      "question": "Will Carvana Co. report above 205000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 205000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 205000: The listed company's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by August 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carvana Co. reports above 205000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 349.778,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 205000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D1F7770A4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "carvana",
        "carvana retail vehicle",
        "q2-2026",
        "retail",
        "vehicles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3P0GS0S29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCVNA-26JULSALES-P210000",
      "question": "Will Carvana Co. report above 210000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "above 210000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "above 210000: The listed company's reported retail vehicle unit sales for Q2 2026, as published on Fiscal.ai and verified by Kalshi staff, resolves by August 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Carvana Co. reports above 210000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 84.868,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 210000,
      "question_id": "CMX-870D1CB3BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "carvana",
        "carvana retail vehicle",
        "q2-2026",
        "retail",
        "vehicles"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4WH43JXM40",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}