{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XGJ666Z94",
  "slug": "kxdefgdp-26oct20",
  "question": "U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-fiscal-policy",
    "deficit-ratio",
    "economic-indicators",
    "fy2026",
    "budget-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP ratio falls below 5% for fiscal year 2026. Kalshi prices a binary outcome on that threshold. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget publishes the authoritative deficit-to-GDP figure. Kalshi staff determination resolves the contract after the OMB release, with the market closing October 2026 and resolving by January 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6C8S6FHX12",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6C8S6FHX12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XGJ666Z94",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDEFGDP-26OCT20-T5",
      "question": "Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?",
      "description": "Below 5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Office of Management and Budget publishes the federal deficit-to-GDP ratio for fiscal year 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-20T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5937.1677,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F239BB079",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "deficit",
        "federal deficit gdp",
        "fy2026",
        "gdp",
        "us-fiscal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9XGJ666Z94",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}