{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
  "slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
  "question": "ICE removals, FY2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
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    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
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    "strikes": [
      {
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        "prob": 99
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      {
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        "prob": 95
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      {
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      {
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        "prob": 71
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      {
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        "prob": 5
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    "us-immigration",
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    "deportation-policy",
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track ICE formal removal counts for U.S. fiscal year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as six binary strike thresholds: 200K, 300K, 400K, 450K, 500K, and 600K. Each threshold prices the probability that removals exceed that level, forming an implied probability curve across the removal distribution. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using ICE removal statistics published by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FMRXQBDF77",
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  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?",
      "description": "Above 200,000",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the number of ICE removals is above 200,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?",
      "description": "Above 300,000",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-08-25T11:01:09.506Z",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T400000",
      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?",
      "description": "Above 400,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
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      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000",
      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 450000 in FY2026?",
      "description": "Above 450,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 450,000: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removal statistics for fiscal year 2026, published by ICE and verified by Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T14:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the number of ICE removals is above 450,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000",
      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?",
      "description": "Above 500,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 500,000: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removal statistics for fiscal year 2026, published by ICE and verified by Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T600000",
      "question": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 600,000: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removal statistics for fiscal year 2026, published by ICE and verified by Kalshi staff determination by April 1, 2027.",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}