{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
  "slug": "kxdiazout-mdc",
  "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel's departure be announced in 2026? (monthly series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "cuba-politics",
    "leadership-transition",
    "2026-resolution",
    "political-departure",
    "caribbean-governance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel departs office across five sequential monthly deadlines, from May through September 2026. All five are structured identically as binary outcome questions with escalating cutoff dates, creating a term-structure of departure probability across the window. The markets are all Kalshi instruments resolved via Kalshi staff determination. Cuba's official state media and government announcements serve as the authoritative source for any departure confirmation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C9L5CNGGZ2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JPHY1S2S5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26MAY01",
      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 121.4,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "departure",
        "miguel az canel",
        "political-leader"
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D61VDJTP09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUN01",
      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before June 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before June 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 563.22,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "departure",
        "miguel az canel",
        "political-leader"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7MTHNS2M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01",
      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before July 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 217.65,
      "volume_total_usd": 10573.82,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "departure",
        "miguel az canel",
        "political-leader"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "bucket": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TK3YWSYF52",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26AUG01",
      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before August 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before August 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "score": 43,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 9.0937,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C9L5CNGGZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before September 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before September 1, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "ABC",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Information",
            "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SS0CRWV2R0",
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      "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
      "description": "Before April 1, 2026",
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      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Kalshi staff determination of whether Miguel Díaz-Canel has left office as Cuba's leader by September 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
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      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before April 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAn announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.\n\nClarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.",
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      "platform": "kalshi",
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      "resolved_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M7MTHNS2M0",
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D61VDJTP09",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.002,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JPHY1S2S5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.001,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}