{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
  "slug": "kxdotplot-26jun",
  "question": "Federal Reserve median dot plot projection, June 17, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.7,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.1,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.6,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.7,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "economic-forecasting",
    "dot-plot",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate projection in the June 17, 2026 dot plot. Kalshi structures all eight markets as binary strike thresholds, each asking whether the median will exceed a specific rate level from 3.0% to 3.7%. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the median dot's terminal value. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination against the published Summary of Economic Projections.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ2F76VV35",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RQ27R18M6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.0",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.0%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.0%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.0% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 108.48,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-30D8F58BC6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dot plot",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q4JV2Z37Y9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.1",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.1%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.1%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.1% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_type": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.1,
      "question_id": "CMX-4254DF4F48",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dot plot",
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SFGQP5T29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.2%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.2%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.2% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 98,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F0FE0B660",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dot plot",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPYM5D5BN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.3",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.3%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.3%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.3% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 100.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-62AFA77198",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dot plot",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-54G4SC7NK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.4",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.4%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.4%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.4% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2597.99,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-08B6BF2998",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dot plot",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-57JGTZHRW2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.5",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.5%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.5% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.94,
      "volume_total_usd": 2897.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-D8AF8BAC27",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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          "status": "not_eligible",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B8C7Y5BC67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.6",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.6%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.6%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.6% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 1,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": 3.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0C9A0D1F7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ2F76VV35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2GP868Y0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.7",
      "question": "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?",
      "description": "Above 3.7%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.7%: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' median federal funds rate in the June 17, 2026 dot plot, confirmed by Kalshi staff determination by June 24, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.7% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
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        "monetary policy"
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RQ27R18M6",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q4JV2Z37Y9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-17T17:55:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SFGQP5T29",
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