{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
  "slug": "kxdropoutprimary-26",
  "question": "Will a candidate drop out of their primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "primary-dropout",
    "2026-election",
    "candidate-attrition",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-elections"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Kalshi markets track named candidates dropping out of state-level primaries across Florida, California, Texas, and Wisconsin in 2026. Each resolves via Kalshi staff determination of official dropout status before a candidate-specific deadline. Texas Senate runoff markets close May 26, Wisconsin markets close August 11, and the Florida market closes August 18. All six are binary dropout questions; no cross-platform structural contrast exists here.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4Z77SCV5W1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.59,
    "implied_probability": 0.59
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Z77SCV5W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JFIS",
      "question": "Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?",
      "description": "James Fishback",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "James Fishback: Kalshi staff determination of the named candidate's dropout status from the referenced primary race, based on Fox News reporting, by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nJames Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nJames Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nJames Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nJames Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nJames Fishback is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Fishback explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1025.6796,
      "volume_total_usd": 17457.9348,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "florida governor primary",
        "james fishback"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9788QHB1K7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-CBIA",
      "question": "Will Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?",
      "description": "Chad Bianco",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chad Bianco: Kalshi staff determination of the named candidate's dropout status from the referenced primary race, based on Fox News reporting, by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-02T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chad Bianco drops out of the 2026 California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nChad Bianco announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nChad Bianco files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nChad Bianco publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nChad Bianco endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nChad Bianco is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Chad Bianco explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california governor primary",
        "chad bianco"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZVF9KDL23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-KPAX",
      "question": "Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton: Kalshi staff determination of the named candidate's dropout status from the referenced primary race, based on Fox News reporting, by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-26T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nKen Paxton announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nKen Paxton files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nKen Paxton publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nKen Paxton endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nKen Paxton is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Ken Paxton explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 32.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ken paxton",
        "texas senate runoff"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8XPRHNQZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JCOR",
      "question": "Will John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?",
      "description": "John Cornyn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Cornyn: Kalshi staff determination of the named candidate's dropout status from the referenced primary race, based on Fox News reporting, by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-26T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Cornyn drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nJohn Cornyn announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nJohn Cornyn files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nJohn Cornyn publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nJohn Cornyn endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nJohn Cornyn is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless John Cornyn explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "john cornyn",
        "texas senate runoff"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MGQM5SHT14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-SROD",
      "question": "Will Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026?",
      "description": "Sara Rodriguez",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Sara Rodriguez: Kalshi staff determination of the named candidate's dropout status from the referenced primary race, based on Fox News reporting, by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T15:48:06Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sara Rodriguez drops out of the 2026 Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nSara Rodriguez announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nSara Rodriguez files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nSara Rodriguez publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nSara Rodriguez endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nSara Rodriguez is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Sara Rodriguez explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
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      "question": "Will Janet Mills drop out of the Maine Senate primary before Jun 9, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Eric Swalwell drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?",
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