{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
  "slug": "kxdropoutprimary-26",
  "question": "Will someone drop out of their election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "election-dropout",
    "2026-election",
    "primary-race",
    "candidate-withdrawal",
    "political-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track named candidates' withdrawal decisions across multiple 2026 primary contests. Races covered span Florida Governor, California Governor, Texas Senate, Wisconsin Governor, and several House districts. All twelve markets resolve via Kalshi staff determination, using public statements or news reports as the evidentiary basis. Note that Max Miller in OH-07 appears in two contracts with different deadlines: August 5 and August 11, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GNDQHWRZH8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.99,
    "implied_probability": 0.99,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Z77SCV5W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JFIS",
      "question": "Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?",
      "description": "James Fishback",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "James Fishback: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nJames Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nJames Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nJames Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nJames Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nJames Fishback is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Fishback explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 43.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 818.93,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "florida governor primary",
        "james fishback"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9788QHB1K7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-CBIA",
      "question": "Will Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?",
      "description": "Chad Bianco",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Chad Bianco: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-02T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Chad Bianco drops out of the 2026 California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nChad Bianco announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nChad Bianco files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nChad Bianco publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nChad Bianco endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nChad Bianco is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Chad Bianco explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1.15,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california governor primary",
        "chad bianco"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JZVF9KDL23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-KPAX",
      "question": "Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?",
      "description": "Ken Paxton",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Ken Paxton: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-26T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ken Paxton drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nKen Paxton announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nKen Paxton files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nKen Paxton publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nKen Paxton endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nKen Paxton is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Ken Paxton explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 32.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ken paxton",
        "texas senate runoff"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8XPRHNQZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-JCOR",
      "question": "Will John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?",
      "description": "John Cornyn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "John Cornyn: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-26T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If John Cornyn drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nJohn Cornyn announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nJohn Cornyn files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nJohn Cornyn publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nJohn Cornyn endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nJohn Cornyn is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless John Cornyn explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CBS",
            "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The New York Times",
            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Washington Post",
            "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Axios",
            "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CNN",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reuters",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Associated Press",
            "url": "https://apnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Politico",
            "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "john cornyn",
        "texas senate runoff"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted",
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MGQM5SHT14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-SROD",
      "question": "Will Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026?",
      "description": "Sara Rodriguez",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Sara Rodriguez: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T15:48:06Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Sara Rodriguez drops out of the 2026 Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nSara Rodriguez announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nSara Rodriguez files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nSara Rodriguez publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nSara Rodriguez endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nSara Rodriguez is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Sara Rodriguez explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fox News",
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "MSNBC",
            "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
            "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Semafor",
            "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ABC",
            "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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      "question": "Will Mandela Barnes drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026?",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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        "wisconsin governor primary"
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      "question": "Will Cory Mills drop out of the FL-07 before Aug 18, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Paul Renner drop out of the Florida Governor before Aug 18, 2026?",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTW2J39317",
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      "question": "Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026?",
      "description": "Max Miller (before 8/5)",
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        "rules_raw": "If Max Miller drops out of the 2026 OH-07 race before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nMax Miller announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nMax Miller files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nMax Miller publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nMax Miller endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nMax Miller is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Max Miller explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
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        "score": 58,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J1WQ7H4T74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-BBRI",
      "question": "Will Bridget Brink drop out of the MI-07 before Aug 4, 2026?",
      "description": "Bridget Brink",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Bridget Brink: Kalshi staff determination by August 18, 2026, based on the named candidate's public statements or news reports regarding primary participation status.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T03:59:00Z",
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      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Bridget Brink drops out of the 2026 MI-07 race before Aug 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\n“Dropped out” means any of the following:\nBridget Brink announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign\nBridget Brink files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities\nBridget Brink publicly states they are no longer seeking the office\nBridget Brink endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running\nBridget Brink is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal\n\nThe following do NOT constitute dropping out:\nLosing a primary or election\nFailing to qualify for debates or ballots\nTemporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing\nBeing eliminated through the normal election process\nReducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate\n\nKey provisions:\nOnce someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter\n“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Bridget Brink explicitly states they remain a candidate\nFor primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary\nWithdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
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      "question": "Will Janet Mills drop out of the Maine Senate primary before Jun 9, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Eric Swalwell drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?",
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