{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
  "slug": "kxdsenateseats-27",
  "question": "How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "democrats",
    "midterms",
    "seat-count",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Democratic Senate seat count following the 2026 midterm elections, settling in the 120th Congress. Kalshi prices discrete seat-count tiers from below 45 to above 52, using Kalshi staff determination against certified post-election seat tallies. No cross-platform structural contrast applies here; all ten markets are Kalshi binary strikes across a continuous seat-count range. Resolution is confirmed by official congressional composition records, with markets closing February 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0N76CRN322",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.19,
    "implied_probability": 0.19
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "Below 45",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 45: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "United States Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
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        "source_of_record": "United States Congress",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.073,
      "implied_probability": 0.073,
      "volume_24h_usd": 192.93388999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 15331.26655,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 44,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FG461TKQ80",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-45",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 45 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "45",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "45: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress?",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WDGRCY69Z1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-47",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "47",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "47: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.067,
      "implied_probability": 0.067,
      "volume_24h_usd": 93.86030000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 7637.51425,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJH6QPBPK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-48",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 48 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "48",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "48: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "United States Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
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        "source_of_record": "United States Congress",
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      "last_price": 0.12,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9SMFTR1Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-49",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "49",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "49: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "50",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "50: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
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      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 50 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "United States Congress",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
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      "last_price": 0.17,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-554QSHFRS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-51",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 51 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "51",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "51: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 51 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
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      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?",
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      "underlying_reference": "52: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has exactly 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "United States Congress",
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 19032.469500000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 52,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "120th-congress",
        "democratic party senate",
        "democrats",
        "us-senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0N76CRN322",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXDSENATESEATS-27-ABOVE52",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?",
      "description": "Above 52",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 52: The number of seats held by the named party in the referenced chamber following the 2026 general election, as confirmed by Congress.gov and determined by Kalshi staff by February 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Democratic Party has above 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nIndividuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "United States Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "United States Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "United States Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1031.4891,
      "volume_total_usd": 94977.1069,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "120th-congress",
        "democratic party senate",
        "democrats",
        "us-senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2D3LD0RMN9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}