{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DWVS0W2C2",
  "slug": "kxearthquakecalifornia-27",
  "question": "Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "natural-disasters",
    "seismic-activity",
    "california",
    "extreme-events",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake strikes California before January 1, 2027. The single Kalshi market resolves via Kalshi staff determination using publicly reported data from the United States Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program. The USGS is the authoritative source for seismic magnitude in the United States. No cross-platform structural contrast applies here; only one market exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3774GRMN30",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3774GRMN30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3DWVS0W2C2",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-27",
      "question": "Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program publicly reports earthquake magnitudes in California through its earthquake database and real-time monitoring system.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "USGS",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=11.43696,-144.22852&extent=58.07788,-45.79102",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "USGS",
            "url": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=11.43696,-144.22852&extent=58.07788,-45.79102",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "USGS",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 118.2052,
      "volume_total_usd": 11964.668000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "california",
        "california earthquake magnitude",
        "earthquake",
        "natural-disaster",
        "seismic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3DWVS0W2C2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}