{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
  "slug": "kxebay-26julgmv",
  "question": "eBay gross merchandise volume, Q2 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      21500000000,
      22000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 21000000000,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 21500000000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 22000000000,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 22500000000,
        "prob": 19
      },
      {
        "threshold": 23000000000,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "ebay",
    "gross-merchandise-volume",
    "q2-2026",
    "financial-metrics",
    "ecommerce"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track eBay's gross merchandise volume for Q2 2026, as reported in its official earnings announcement. Kalshi structures coverage as five discrete strike thresholds: $21B, $21.5B, $22B, $22.5B, and $23B. Each contract is a binary above/below question at a successive level, forming an implied probability distribution across the GMV range. Resolution is by Kalshi staff determination against eBay's official reported figure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JJFFDGW427",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.46,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEBAY-26JULGMV-21000000000.0",
      "question": "Will eBay Inc. report Above $21 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21 billion: eBay Inc.'s Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume as reported in its official earnings announcement resolves by August 28, 2026, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If eBay Inc. reports Above 21000000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4963.7,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 21000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-42306ACA10",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ebay",
        "ebay gross merchandise",
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YTH5W44RN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEBAY-26JULGMV-21500000000.0",
      "question": "Will eBay Inc. report Above $21.5 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $21.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $21.5 billion: eBay Inc.'s Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume as reported in its official earnings announcement resolves by August 28, 2026, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If eBay Inc. reports Above 21500000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99.65,
      "volume_total_usd": 5755.26,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 21500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0C9485A871",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ebay",
        "ebay gross merchandise",
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
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          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JJFFDGW427",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEBAY-26JULGMV-22000000000.0",
      "question": "Will eBay Inc. report Above $22 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $22 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $22 billion: eBay Inc.'s Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume as reported in its official earnings announcement resolves by August 28, 2026, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If eBay Inc. reports Above 22000000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48.53,
      "volume_total_usd": 4941.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 22000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B7BFCBDCC1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ebay",
        "ebay gross merchandise",
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FPSJ00HQZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEBAY-26JULGMV-22500000000.0",
      "question": "Will eBay Inc. report Above $22.5 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $22.5 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $22.5 billion: eBay Inc.'s Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume as reported in its official earnings announcement resolves by August 28, 2026, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If eBay Inc. reports Above 22500000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 85.89,
      "volume_total_usd": 2226.21,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 22500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5AB1B480CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ebay",
        "ebay gross merchandise",
        "gmv",
        "q2-2026"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CPM7D93VM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEBAY-26JULGMV-23000000000.0",
      "question": "Will eBay Inc. report Above $23 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?",
      "description": "Above $23 billion",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $23 billion: eBay Inc.'s Q2 2026 gross merchandise volume as reported in its official earnings announcement resolves by August 28, 2026, via Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If eBay Inc. reports Above 23000000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GC4VDXFWV1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}