{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economic-outlook",
    "macro-assessment",
    "eoy-2026",
    "resolution-2027",
    "subjective-judgment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Kalshi markets collectively track the macroeconomic regime prevailing at year-end 2026. Each contract isolates a discrete economic outcome: stagflation, soft landing, overheating, or slack/disinflation. The four are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, making them a regime-probability distribution across a single event. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using Federal Reserve economic data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7RKJGXSLS1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.59,
    "implied_probability": 0.59,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFLMG6PKS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Stagflation",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Stagflation: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced economic outcome occurred, based on Federal Reserve Economic Data unemployment and growth metrics by January 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.109,
      "implied_probability": 0.109,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 3004.3135899999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DF50C877D3",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-14CJ6D8PN9",
          "price": 0.085
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "stagflation",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RKJGXSLS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Soft landing",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Soft landing: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced economic outcome occurred, based on Federal Reserve Economic Data unemployment and growth metrics by January 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 227.63379999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 13577.9237,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-534611296D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-J547LJHRL2",
          "price": 0.54
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "soft landing",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-33K7Z9LBG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Overheating",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Overheating: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced economic outcome occurred, based on Federal Reserve Economic Data unemployment and growth metrics by January 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 42.8365,
      "volume_total_usd": 10336.976999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ADF0FF707D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "overheating",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1205L1MMG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SLACK",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Slack / disinflation",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Slack / disinflation: Kalshi staff determination of whether the referenced economic outcome occurred, based on Federal Reserve Economic Data unemployment and growth metrics by January 13, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.01632,
      "volume_total_usd": 68.79392,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CF0864309C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "deflation",
        "disinflation",
        "slack",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_interpretation_s1"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12",
          "cluster": "other_interpretation"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}