{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economic-outlook",
    "macro-assessment",
    "eoy-2026",
    "resolution-2027",
    "subjective-judgment"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Kalshi markets collectively price the mutually exclusive macroeconomic outcomes for the U.S. economy at end-2026. The four scenarios are stagflation, soft landing, overheating, and slack/disinflation. Together they form a complete probability distribution across growth and inflation regimes. Resolution occurs in January 2027 via Kalshi staff determination.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LFLMG6PKS0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.212
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFLMG6PKS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Stagflation",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Stagflation: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.212,
      "volume_24h_usd": 102.27727999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 4840.61508,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DF50C877D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "stagflation",
        "us economy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Soft landing",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Soft landing: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
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            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.403,
      "implied_probability": 0.403,
      "volume_24h_usd": 82.212,
      "volume_total_usd": 4201.291120000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-534611296D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "soft landing",
        "us economy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Overheating",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Overheating: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.392,
      "implied_probability": 0.392,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.94864,
      "volume_total_usd": 1961.2936000000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ADF0FF707D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "inflation",
        "overheating",
        "us economy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1205L1MMG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SLACK",
      "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "Slack / disinflation",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Slack / disinflation: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-13T13:25:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-13T14:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
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        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
        "sources": [
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        "score": 96,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 270.0438,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CF0864309C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "deflation",
        "disinflation",
        "slack",
        "us economy"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}