{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
  "slug": "kxeffr-26jul01",
  "question": "Effective Federal Funds Rate, July 1, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.5,
      3.75
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.25,
        "prob": 98
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.75,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "us-monetary-policy",
    "q2-2026",
    "interest-rates",
    "economic-indicators"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the EFFR on June 30, 2026, sourced from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published rate value. Kalshi structures five binary strikes at 3.00%, 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, and 4.00%, each asking whether the rate level exceeds that threshold. Together they form an implied distribution of the policy rate at Q2-end. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' published EFFR data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2HKDZJ7VC6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-09KZ0H42D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.00",
      "question": "Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.00%?",
      "description": "Above 3.00%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published Effective Federal Funds Rate value for June 30, 2026, as of the July 8, 2026 announcement, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T12:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 941.49,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-D2877A99C6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "effective federal funds",
        "effr",
        "fed funds",
        "interest rates",
        "q2 2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11W3JBNKL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.25",
      "question": "Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.25%?",
      "description": "Above 3.25%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.25%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published Effective Federal Funds Rate value for June 30, 2026, as of the July 8, 2026 announcement, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T12:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3311.42,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-26716D5DF1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "effective federal funds",
        "effr",
        "fed funds",
        "interest rates",
        "q2 2026"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6RGMCZ5XW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.50",
      "question": "Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.50%?",
      "description": "Above 3.50%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.50%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published Effective Federal Funds Rate value for June 30, 2026, as of the July 8, 2026 announcement, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T12:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2468.09,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-103D5FFB97",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "effective federal funds",
        "effr",
        "fed funds",
        "interest rates",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2HKDZJ7VC6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.75",
      "question": "Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.75%?",
      "description": "Above 3.75%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3.75%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published Effective Federal Funds Rate value for June 30, 2026, as of the July 8, 2026 announcement, determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T12:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0.67,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.75,
      "question_id": "CMX-C46B44A191",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "effr",
        "fed funds",
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        "q2 2026"
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      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFR-26JUL01-T4.00",
      "question": "Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 4.00%?",
      "description": "Above 4.00%",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 4.00%: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' first published Effective Federal Funds Rate value for June 30, 2026, as of the July 8, 2026 announcement, determines the outcome.",
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        "rules_raw": "If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}