{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
  "slug": "kxefftariff-26jul30",
  "question": "The US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      7.5,
      10
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7.5,
        "prob": 72
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 14
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12.5,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-tariffs",
    "trade-policy",
    "q2-2026",
    "economic-indicators",
    "customs-duties"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026, defined as customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports. Kalshi structures the event as five discrete strike thresholds: above 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, and 15%. The rate level at each strike is independently tradeable, creating an implied probability distribution across the range. Resolution relies on Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates, determined by Kalshi staff, with results expected by August 6, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6T62M6PJ34",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-33691L37V6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T5",
      "question": "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 5%?",
      "description": "Above 5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates of customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports, published August 2026, determine whether the ratio exceeds 5 percent for the specified quarter.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6955.7244,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-EFAC5FF641",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "customs duties",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WMZR93N7Q0",
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      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T7.5",
      "question": "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 7.5%?",
      "description": "Above 7.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 7.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates of customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports, published August 2026, determine whether the ratio exceeds 5 percent for the specified quarter.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.71,
      "implied_probability": 0.71,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.91,
      "volume_total_usd": 541.8222999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-EE9494A951",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "customs duties",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6T62M6PJ34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10",
      "question": "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%?",
      "description": "Above 10%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10%: Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates of customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports, published August 2026, determine whether the ratio exceeds 5 percent for the specified quarter.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
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        "grade": "A",
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        "caps": [],
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      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 603.9320000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-D575CFF101",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "customs duties",
        "q2 2026",
        "tariffs",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-35R1ZYRFY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T12.5",
      "question": "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 12.5%?",
      "description": "Above 12.5%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 12.5%: Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates of customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports, published August 2026, determine whether the ratio exceeds 5 percent for the specified quarter.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T12:29:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-06T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 12.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 74.0018,
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      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12.5,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T15",
      "question": "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 15%?",
      "description": "Above 15%",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Above 15%: Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly estimates of customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports, published August 2026, determine whether the ratio exceeds 5 percent for the specified quarter.",
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "tags": [
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        "tariffs",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}