{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
  "slug": "kxelectionemergency",
  "question": "Will Trump declare an election emergency?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "trump",
    "emergency-declaration",
    "2026",
    "executive-action"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Trump issues an executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Kalshi lists four binary contracts with staggered deadlines: May 1, July 1, September 1, and November 4, 2026. Each contract extends the resolution window, letting traders price cumulative probability of action over time. Kalshi staff determination uses White House official records as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WCLP34HC00",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.45
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26MAY01",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before May 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before May 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before May 1, 2026: The White House official record resolves whether the named executive official issues any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the referenced election before November 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the White House",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
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        "source_of_record": "the White House",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "score": 75,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "trump",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: The White House official record resolves whether the named executive official issues any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the referenced election before November 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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        "source": "the White House",
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            "name": "the White House",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
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          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 75,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W4K6NWD3N6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: The White House official record resolves whether the named executive official issues any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the referenced election before November 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the White House",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "the White House",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
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        "source_of_record": "the White House",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 75,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 158.3648,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "emergency",
        "executive-action",
        "trump",
        "trump national emergency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
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          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WCLP34HC00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Nov 4, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Nov 4, 2026: The White House official record resolves whether the named executive official issues any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the referenced election before November 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-11T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "the White House",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
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          {
            "name": "the President of the United States",
            "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
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        "score": 75,
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TCWCGM3112",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
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