{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
  "slug": "kxelnino-26",
  "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present by 2026?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "el-nino",
    "weather-prediction",
    "noaa-declaration",
    "climate-conditions",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present across five sequential deadline horizons in 2026. Each Kalshi contract prices binary probability at a discrete cutoff: July 1, August 1, September 1, October 1, and January 1, 2027. The structure forms an implicit term curve, where spread between adjacent strikes prices the conditional probability of declaration within each window. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination referencing NOAA's official Oceanic Niño Index advisories.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TLM754M1P9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TLM754M1P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELNINO-26-JUL",
      "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Jul 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jul 1, 2026: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present in its official oceanic Niño index report before July 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination by July 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:03:50Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:03:50Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 130.45,
      "volume_total_usd": 8325.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el ni conditions",
        "enso",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D72LBZ0X29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELNINO-26-AUG",
      "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Aug 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Aug 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Aug 1, 2026: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present in its official oceanic Niño index report before July 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination by July 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:03:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:03:59Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6235.64,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el ni conditions",
        "enso",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9RWSWZF15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELNINO-26-SEP",
      "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Sep 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Sep 1, 2026: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present in its official oceanic Niño index report before July 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination by July 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:05Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:05Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6187.89,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el ni conditions",
        "enso",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PXQXWZV1B3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELNINO-26-OCT",
      "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "description": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Oct 1, 2026: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present in its official oceanic Niño index report before July 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination by July 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:12Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:12Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 120.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el ni conditions",
        "enso",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N4148ZVGW4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXELNINO-26-JAN",
      "question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "Before Jan 1, 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before Jan 1, 2027: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center declares El Niño conditions present in its official oceanic Niño index report before July 1, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination by July 14, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:21Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-14T21:04:21Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
            "url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the National Weather Service",
            "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
            "url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.51,
      "volume_total_usd": 174.39,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "climate",
        "el ni conditions",
        "enso",
        "weather"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "under_min_maturity"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N4148ZVGW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-14T21:34:23.382193Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PXQXWZV1B3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-14T21:34:13.378068Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P9RWSWZF15",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-14T21:34:13.37799Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D72LBZ0X29",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-14T21:33:59.079089Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TLM754M1P9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-14T21:33:59.078967Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}