{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
  "slug": "kxemercuts-26",
  "question": "Will there be emergency rate cuts in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "emergency-decisions",
    "2026-economy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the number of Federal Reserve emergency intermeeting rate cuts in 2026. The five Kalshi contracts are mutually exclusive discrete tiers spanning zero to four cuts. Together they form a complete probability distribution over emergency policy action frequency. Resolution follows Kalshi staff determination using Federal Reserve Board of Governors official monetary policy announcements.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3WQBF4DS72",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.916,
    "implied_probability": 0.916
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3WQBF4DS72",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEMERCUTS-26-T0",
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?",
      "description": "0 cuts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "0 cuts: Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements regarding emergency meeting rate decisions, resolved by Kalshi staff determination by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.916,
      "implied_probability": 0.916,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 204928.60088,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-D1935DD4B7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "emergency",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve emergency rate",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MCHQTM15F0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEMERCUTS-26-T1",
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?",
      "description": "1 cuts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "1 cuts: Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements regarding emergency meeting rate decisions, resolved by Kalshi staff determination by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 1 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.244,
      "volume_total_usd": 4792.244000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": "CMX-03E1C2945D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "emergency",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve emergency rate",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2JZ35XDT34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEMERCUTS-26-T2",
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?",
      "description": "2 cuts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "2 cuts: Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements regarding emergency meeting rate decisions, resolved by Kalshi staff determination by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 2 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 548.4179200000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-4BEA2FB6F5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "emergency",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve emergency rate",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5TRCPZ8BX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEMERCUTS-26-T3",
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates 3 times at emergency meetings?",
      "description": "3 cuts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "3 cuts: Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements regarding emergency meeting rate decisions, resolved by Kalshi staff determination by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 3 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1166.29104,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7AA6781121",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "emergency",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve emergency rate",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QMLYQPS3N8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEMERCUTS-26-T4",
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings?",
      "description": "4 cuts",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "4 cuts: Federal Reserve's official monetary policy announcements regarding emergency meeting rate decisions, resolved by Kalshi staff determination by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 4 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.\n\nTo be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 689.1657299999999,
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      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-E3EC4FE9AB",
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      "tags": [
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        "emergency",
        "fed",
        "federal reserve emergency rate",
        "rates"
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          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}