{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
  "slug": "kxethmaxmon-eth-26jul31",
  "question": "ETH trimmed mean by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      2000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2000,
        "prob": 37
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2250,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2500,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2750,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3250,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3500,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3750,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "ethereum-price",
    "crypto-markets",
    "july-2026",
    "price-prediction",
    "bullish-bearish"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price at 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. Kalshi prices discrete strike thresholds from $2,000 to $3,750, forming an implied cumulative distribution of ETH price outcomes. Each binary resolves YES if the trimmed mean clears its respective strike level. Kalshi staff determination applies throughout, referencing CF Benchmarks as the authoritative price source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P292MMY2D5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.42,
    "implied_probability": 0.42
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P292MMY2D5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-200000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2,000.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n2000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1416.807,
      "volume_total_usd": 55107.595199999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000,
      "question_id": "CMX-180BC26670",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0VMPW02VB1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-225000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2,250.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2,250.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n2250.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 138.05440000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 4678.715200000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2250,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C82ABBCE1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JLPFPWDRS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-250000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2,500.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2,500.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n2500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.7638,
      "volume_total_usd": 741.6764000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2500,
      "question_id": "CMX-5E494C6F30",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RB693FYXH6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-275000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $2,750.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $2,750.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n2750.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 219.4102,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2750,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4A0091995",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CQFSN5MR07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-300000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3,000.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n3000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 28.577800000000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE44B3B4E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-05FNBSNYC2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-325000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3,250.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3,250.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n3250.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 38.452600000000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3250,
      "question_id": "CMX-ECA7A016A9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G8BCQPPKR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-350000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3,500.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3,500.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n3500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11.995000000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3500,
      "question_id": "CMX-2AB64CFCF8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "july-2026",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2JFHZ0Z5M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CKJNJKR4G8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUL31-375000",
      "question": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Above $3,750.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $3,750.00: CF Benchmarks ETH trimmed mean price as of 11:59 PM ET July 31, 2026, determines resolution; Kalshi staff compares to specified threshold by August 8, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-01T03:59:59Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $\n3750.00, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nAt each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
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