{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
  "slug": "kxethminy-27jan01",
  "question": "Ethereum minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      750,
      1750
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 750,
        "prob": 14
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000,
        "prob": 32
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1250,
        "prob": 65
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1750,
        "prob": 97
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "ethereum-price",
    "crypto-markets",
    "price-floor",
    "2026",
    "volatility-prediction"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ethereum breaches discrete price floors by January 1, 2027. Kalshi structures the event as five descending strike thresholds: $1,750, $1,500, $1,250, $1,000, and $750. Each lower strike implies a subset of the prior, creating an implicit probability term structure across downside scenarios. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at the settlement timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KW3NZR48Q4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S57TNWDWD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1750",
      "question": "Will Ethereum reach below $1750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
      "description": "Below $1,750.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $1,750.00: CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at January 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET determines if the listed cryptocurrency closes below the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-04T02:09:48Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 143375.04,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1750,
      "question_id": "CMX-9B20AA556A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XSYBZVZX05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1500",
      "question": "Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
      "description": "Below $1,500.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $1,500.00: CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at January 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET determines if the listed cryptocurrency closes below the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 95.62,
      "volume_total_usd": 130261.5608,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1500,
      "question_id": "CMX-54CC98E0FE",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-6N2GT7CJ78",
          "price": 0.85
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9HC9GB2M09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1250",
      "question": "Will Ethereum reach below $1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
      "description": "Below $1,250.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $1,250.00: CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at January 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET determines if the listed cryptocurrency closes below the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1427.8319999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 98371.0152,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1250,
      "question_id": "CMX-8DF5DB3278",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FH7JHR08T2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1000",
      "question": "Will Ethereum reach below $1000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
      "description": "Below $1,000.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $1,000.00: CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at January 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET determines if the listed cryptocurrency closes below the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 28501.3392,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0F248206C",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-D3J24Z72Y5",
          "price": 0.27
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KW3NZR48Q4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-750",
      "question": "Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
      "description": "Below $750.00",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Below $750.00: CF Benchmarks' Ethereum price reference rate at January 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET determines if the listed cryptocurrency closes below the specified threshold, resolved by Kalshi staff by January 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CF Benchmarks",
            "url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4128.003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 750,
      "question_id": "CMX-68089A8006",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereum",
        "floor",
        "price"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S57TNWDWD9",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0.97,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}