{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
  "slug": "kxexushome-26aug11",
  "question": "Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      435000,
      440000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 415000,
        "prob": 96
      },
      {
        "threshold": 420000,
        "prob": 92
      },
      {
        "threshold": 425000,
        "prob": 93
      },
      {
        "threshold": 430000,
        "prob": 88
      },
      {
        "threshold": 435000,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 440000,
        "prob": 35
      },
      {
        "threshold": 445000,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 450000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 455000,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-housing-market",
    "median-price-index",
    "economic-data",
    "july-2026",
    "real-estate-sales"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the National Association of Realtors' median existing home sales price for July 2026, published via FRED series HOSMEDUSM052N. Kalshi structures coverage as nine discrete strike thresholds from $415,000 to $455,000 in $5,000 increments, each a binary yes/no. The implied probability distribution across strikes lets traders read a synthetic price curve for the July print. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination against the FRED release due by August 18, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZZG6G6VCB7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.35,
    "implied_probability": 0.35
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y7SRF739M4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T415000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $415,000?",
      "description": "Above $415,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $415,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $415,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "FRED",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 33.66,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 415000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3194942AB5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "median-price",
        "real-estate",
        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1GXR710GV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T420000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $420,000?",
      "description": "Above $420,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $420,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $420,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "FRED",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 656.88,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 420000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7754EFC91D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5C4Q13L1W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T425000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $425,000?",
      "description": "Above $425,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $425,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $425,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FRED",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2145.51,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 425000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5EEC921BAA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "median-price",
        "real-estate",
        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7CC8KYVTR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T430000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $430,000?",
      "description": "Above $430,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $430,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $430,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FRED",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1929.84,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 430000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C2D2106E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "median-price",
        "real-estate",
        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6XV8MLSQZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T435000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $435,000?",
      "description": "Above $435,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $435,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $435,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FRED",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1205.8407,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 435000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A9DB72A451",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "median-price",
        "real-estate",
        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZZG6G6VCB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T440000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $440,000?",
      "description": "Above $440,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $440,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $440,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.35,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 798.7629999999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-2CF2D98349",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQZZX6N0W3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T445000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $445,000?",
      "description": "Above $445,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $445,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $445,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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          {
            "name": "FRED",
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        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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      "rcg": {
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 271.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-B0B1803A01",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us existing home"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3V6LJM3TV2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T450000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $450,000?",
      "description": "Above $450,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $450,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $450,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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          {
            "name": "FRED",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
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      "question_id": "CMX-F1970DB16C",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NHBP3624V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXEXUSHOME-26AUG11-T455000",
      "question": "Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $455,000?",
      "description": "Above $455,000",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above $455,000: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series HOSMEDUSM052N for July 2026, released by August 18, 2026, determines whether the median existing home sales price exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T13:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T15:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $455,000, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "FRED",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 100,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19.900000000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 455000,
      "question_id": "CMX-62FD2FE5BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "housing",
        "median-price",
        "real-estate",
        "us existing home"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}