{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
  "slug": "kxfa-28janussales",
  "question": "Ford Motor Company report million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      2000000,
      2050000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1800000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1850000,
        "prob": 99
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1900000,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1950000,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000,
        "prob": 59
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2050000,
        "prob": 46
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2100000,
        "prob": 39
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2150000,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2200000,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2250000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2300000,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "ford-sales",
    "automotive-industry",
    "us-market",
    "volume-metrics",
    "2026-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ford Motor Company's total U.S. vehicle sales volume for full-year 2026. Kalshi structures the event as eleven discrete strike thresholds, ranging from 1.8 million to 2.3 million units. Each binary contract prices the probability that reported volume clears its respective threshold. Kalshi staff determination references Ford's annual U.S. sales figures as reported to the National Automobile Dealers Association; markets settle in 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-76CYSZ1W27",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.46,
    "implied_probability": 0.46
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CW5Y0RXKF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-1800000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 1.8 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.8 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.8 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 1800000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4234.23,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1800000,
      "question_id": "CMX-96F06C0FEF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TVSNCZKBV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-1850000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 1.85 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.85 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.85 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 1850000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 83.16,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1850000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8787B2BD29",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W48M57SQG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-1900000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 1.9 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.9 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.9 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 1900000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 56.1,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1900000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C4148C0C2B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YS82GT6Z08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-1950000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 1.95 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 1.95 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 1.95 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 1950000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2868.7414999999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1950000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EBC9D383B4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1YD0Y0YPP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2000000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2000000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
            "url": "https://fiscal.ai",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2631.9487,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-744D67A479",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76CYSZ1W27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2049999.9999999998",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.05 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.05 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.05 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2049999.9999999998 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 211.53560000000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2050000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1BAAA78F0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3DDMJR7W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2100000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.1 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.1 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.1 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2100000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 780.78,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2100000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8E56DFC947",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S2TKCB7950",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2150000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.15 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.15 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.15 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2150000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1133.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2150000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B5556D16A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y0KWL2KXX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2200000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.2 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.2 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.2 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2200000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
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        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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            "name": "Fiscal.ai",
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 127.26180000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2200000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F6166D57BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "automotive",
        "ford",
        "ford motor company",
        "us sales"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WV3Z44X1G7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GZLYPGCNW4",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFA-28JANUSSALES-2250000.0",
      "question": "Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.25 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?",
      "description": "Above 2.25 million",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 2.25 million: Kalshi staff determination of the named company's annual U.S. vehicle sales volume as reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, resolved by March 31, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-03-31T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ford Motor Company reports Above 2250000.0 u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Fiscal.ai",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fiscal.ai",
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