{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
  "slug": "kxfdvopensea-27jan01",
  "question": "OpenSea fully diluted valuation, January 1, 2027",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      2000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 14
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5000000000,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8000000000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10000000000,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12000000000,
        "prob": 1
      },
      {
        "threshold": 15000000000,
        "prob": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "opensea",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "crypto-token-launch",
    "post-launch-metrics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of the OpenSea token at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, one day after the anticipated launch. Kalshi structures the event as six discrete strike thresholds, ranging from $2 billion to $15 billion, each a binary question on whether FDV exceeds that level. Traders can read an implied probability distribution across the full FDV range by comparing prices across the six strikes. Resolution relies on Kalshi staff determination using CoinGecko data as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-S7TM4MH1H9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S7TM4MH1H9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-1999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$2,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$2,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 1999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.2133,
      "volume_total_usd": 10956.464399999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-523A5BF4EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3V3TWSKB49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-4999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$5,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$5,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 4999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
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          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.021,
      "volume_total_usd": 1763.5884,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6164274EF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MSTHSNT6V4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-7999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $7999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$8,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$8,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 7999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.683,
      "volume_total_usd": 472.571,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD9AE18B40",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_enumerated_s1"
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          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6QC627LZ57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-9999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$10,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$10,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 9999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 121.01280000000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EFA9497CEF",
      "also_on": null,
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        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MG2MYRL2B6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-11999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $11999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$12,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$12,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 11999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
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      "volume_total_usd": 20.334300000000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A5410BB738",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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        }
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4HF6T3HX09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-14999999999",
      "question": "Will Opensea FDV be above $14999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?",
      "description": "$15,000,000,000+",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "$15,000,000,000+: CoinGecko data on the listed company's fully diluted valuation at 10:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2027, as determined by Kalshi staff by January 8, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-08T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 14999999999.99 at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe FDV must be the value shown in the \"FDV\" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "CoinGecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com",
        "sources": [
          {
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
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        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 361.4778,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8E9C3490E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2027",
        "fdv",
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "review",
          "reasons": [
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y1SRY28XC5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}